Polymarket Predicts Bitcoin $75K While Charts Signal Caution

Bitcoin faces a critical crossroads as Polymarket bets heavily on a $75,000 target, while technical indicators and whale behavior paint a more cautious picture. The cryptocurrency hovers near $68,000 amid conflicting signals between optimistic prediction markets and bearish chart patterns.

Bitcoin price has maintained a flat trajectory around $68,000 over the past 24 hours, reflecting persistent market indecision. The broader seven-day trend reveals a mild decline, highlighting the absence of strong bullish momentum despite growing optimism in prediction markets.

On Polymarket, the most popular February outcome shows a 17% probability that Bitcoin will cross $75,000, making it the single largest directional bet as the month enters its final week. This prediction has attracted over $88 million in trading volume with millions in active liquidity, demonstrating significant market interest in this bullish scenario.

However, the probability of reaching $75,000 has already declined by more than 50%, reflecting waning confidence among traders. The next most likely outcome sits at 'under $60,000' with a 12% probability, revealing a growing split in market expectations between those hoping for upside and those preparing for a deeper correction.

Technical Analysis Reveals Hidden Bearish Divergence

Bitcoin's daily chart reveals concerning technical patterns that contradict the optimistic prediction market sentiment. Between November 15 and February 16, Bitcoin formed a lower high, indicating that the price failed to fully recover during its latest rally attempt.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) formed a higher high during the same period, creating what technical analysts call a hidden bearish divergence. This pattern typically signals continuation of the existing downtrend rather than a bullish reversal, suggesting that even though momentum improved briefly, the broader selling pressure remains intact.

Since this divergence appeared, Bitcoin has already corrected nearly 6%. As long as this signal remains active, reaching the prediction market's $75,000 target appears increasingly unlikely without a significant shift in market dynamics.

Long-Term Holder Activity Shows Cautious Stabilization

Long-term holder behavior provides crucial insights into Bitcoin's potential trajectory. These investors, who have held Bitcoin for more than one year, often determine whether the cryptocurrency enters a sustained rally or correction phase.

On February 5, long-term holders reduced their holdings by 244,919 BTC on a 30-day rolling basis, indicating extremely heavy selling pressure. By February 21, this figure improved dramatically to 81,019 BTC, marking a roughly 67% reduction in selling pressure that helps explain the current price stabilization.

Despite this improvement, long-term holders remain net sellers overall. They have not yet transitioned into accumulation mode, meaning they are not providing the strong buying support needed to push Bitcoin toward new highs. This creates a neutral balance where Bitcoin may avoid immediate collapse but lacks the strength for a major breakout.

Whale Positioning Reveals Market Division

Whale activity further illustrates the market's uncertainty about Bitcoin's near-term direction. The largest Bitcoin whales, holding between 100,000 and 1 million BTC, increased their holdings from 676,540 BTC to 690,000 BTC, representing an accumulation of approximately 13,460 BTC.

Conversely, smaller whales holding between 10,000 and 100,000 BTC reduced their holdings from 2.27 million BTC to 2.26 million BTC, selling roughly 10,000 BTC during the same period. This opposing behavior demonstrates a lack of unified conviction among large holders, even though the net balance slightly favors accumulation.

Cost basis distribution data reveals a major resistance cluster between $72,600 and $73,200, where around 149,000 BTC were accumulated. These levels appear prominently on price charts as a significant resistance zone just below the $75,000 target, creating a formidable barrier that prediction markets may be underestimating.

Price Structure Suggests Range-Bound Movement

Bitcoin's current price structure closely aligns with on-chain cost basis clusters, creating a well-defined trading range. To reach the $75,000 prediction target, Bitcoin must first break above $72,200, which represents both technical resistance and proximity to one of the largest cost basis clusters. This would require a rally of more than 6% from current levels.

On the downside, strong support exists between $64,300 and $63,800, where approximately 150,000 BTC were accumulated. The key support level on the price chart sits at $63,300, and breaking below this zone would significantly increase the probability of reaching the $60,000 level that represents the second most likely outcome on Polymarket.

Bitcoin appears trapped between these two major cost basis zones, with resistance near $72,200 limiting upside potential while support near $63,300 prevents immediate collapse. This range-bound structure suggests that prediction markets may be overestimating the probability of a breakout toward $75,000 while underestimating the risk of continued consolidation or correction.

Looking Ahead: The disconnect between Polymarket's optimistic $75,000 prediction and the underlying market structure creates a compelling narrative of caution. While reduced selling from long-term holders provides some stability, the combination of bearish technical divergence, divided whale positioning, and strong resistance clusters suggests Bitcoin may struggle to reach prediction market targets in the near term.