Bitcoin Rally Continues as Grayscale Calls Bull Market

Bitcoin price continues its impressive march toward $80,000 as Grayscale researchers believe the cryptocurrency has likely formed a market bottom and entered the early phase of a new bull cycle. The digital asset reached a 10-week high above $78,000 on Wednesday as geopolitical tensions eased.

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Bitcoin price demonstrated remarkable strength, rising 4.4% on April 22 to reach $78,251 before stabilizing around $78,000 at the time of writing. At its current level, the cryptocurrency stands 19% higher than its lowest point last month and 24% above its year-to-date low, signaling a significant recovery from recent market pressures.

The rally gained momentum following Trump's announcement to extend the ongoing ceasefire with Iran, as markets await more substantive talks to bring an end to the eight-week conflict that began on February 24. Despite the extension, Trump noted that the U.S. blockade on the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian ports would remain in effect until Iran submits a proposal for talks to resolve the conflict permanently.

Grayscale Research Identifies Market Bottom Formation

With Bitcoin trading close to a two-month high, Grayscale Research's head of research, Zach Pandl, outlined a constructive outlook for the asset in The Stack. Pandl cited on-chain indicators showing that recent buyers are nearing breakeven following a rebound of over 20% from February lows near $63,000.

The realized price for coins that moved within the past one to three months now sits around $74,000. This shift suggests short-term holders have largely exited loss-making territory, which could ease selling pressure and support a change in market sentiment. Pandl views the $65,000 to $70,000 range as a firm base for future price action.

While Bitcoin remains below its October 2025 peak, the current recovery mirrors early-stage behavior seen in previous upcycles. Pandl emphasized that if Bitcoin price rises further in the coming days, more recent buyers would move into positive profit and loss territory, which can be an indicator for marking the first phase of a bull market.

Derivatives Market Shows Bullish Positioning

Data from the Bitcoin derivatives market compiled by CoinGlass reveals that investors have already started repositioning for further gains. In the past 24 hours, total Bitcoin Futures open interest has risen by 5.6% to $60 billion. This suggests that an increasing number of investors are betting on Bitcoin to climb higher, a sentiment evident with a long/short ratio of 1.02.

Technical analysis supports the bullish outlook. On the daily chart, Bitcoin price action has formed an ascending parallel channel pattern where it consistently carves out higher highs and higher lows. As long as Bitcoin successfully trades within the boundaries of this channel, the asset would continue to remain in an uptrend, potentially reaching $80,000 next before moving toward its previous record highs.

The 20-day exponential moving average has formed a bullish crossover with the 50-day EMA, indicating that short-term momentum is now firmly in favor of buyers. Meanwhile, the daily relative strength index shows there is still room for further gains before the market becomes overbought, allowing for more growth before experiencing any significant pullback.

Looking Ahead: The confluence of easing geopolitical tensions, positive on-chain metrics, and bullish technical indicators suggests Bitcoin may be entering a sustained recovery phase. With Grayscale's market bottom call and strong derivatives positioning, the cryptocurrency appears well-positioned to challenge the $80,000 level in the near term.