The Week In One Paragraph
The Federal Reserve held at 3.75 to 4.00 percent on 28 October by a 10 to 2 vote, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland’s Beth Hammack both preferring a quarter-point increase, and the statement said the committee will wait for “the accumulation of more information” before deciding. Next week delivers the first instalment of that information: the October jobs report on Friday 6 November, the first of two the committee will see before its 8 to 9 December meeting, where it also publishes new projections. The data it has already seen cut both ways. The economy grew 3.4 percent annualised in the third quarter and core PCE ran 3.1 percent on the year in September, but payrolls rose only 29,000 in September with July and August revised down a combined 60,000, so the hawks have the inflation argument and the doves have the jobs argument, and Friday decides which one December turns on. Before Friday, the long end gets two tests of its own: the midterm elections on Tuesday and the Treasury’s quarterly refunding statement on Wednesday, which will say whether coupon auction sizes stay frozen. For bitcoin the week opens from a weak place. BTC closed at 84,103 on the Bitfinex daily candle on 20 October and traded near 77,600 on 30 October, down about 7.7 percent in 10 days, and it fell 4.1 percent on 29 October, the day the 10-year Treasury yield slipped to 4.98 percent and the 10-year real yield to 2.63 percent. Lower yields are still not reaching crypto, which is the view we have carried for two issues, and nothing on next week’s calendar changes that unless Friday’s print is weak enough to take the December increase off the table.
Catalyst Calendar
Day, time
Release or event
Where it stands now
What would surprise, and how it reaches bitcoin
Tue 3, 10:00
August openings 7.1 million on a 4.3 percent rate, quits 1.9 percent, layoffs 1.6 million
Openings below 7.0 million with layoffs rising would say the 29,000 September payroll print was the start of something, not noise; that is the only data point before Friday that can pull December pricing lower
Tue 3, polls close from 7:00 pm
US midterm elections: 35 Senate seats, all 435 House seats, 36 governorships
Polymarket priced a Democratic Senate at about 69 percent and a Democratic House at about 94 percent on 30 October. Senate cloture on the CLARITY Act market-structure bill failed 49 to 50 on 15 September and has not been rescheduled
A Republican hold of the Senate is the surprise. For crypto the result decides whether market-structure legislation gets a second attempt in 2027 and who chairs the committees that would write it; for the long end it decides whether the deficit outlook moves, which is the refunding question in a different form. It is a 2027 catalyst, not a Wednesday-morning price event
Tue 3, 11:30 pm Mon ET (2:30 pm Sydney)
Reserve Bank of Australia decision
4.60 percent after four increases this year; money markets price about 79 percent odds of a fifth, to 4.85 percent, after third-quarter trimmed mean inflation of 1.0 percent on the quarter
A hold is the surprise. Low direct relevance, but a hike adds to the picture of central banks still tightening into year end, which keeps the dollar bid
Wed 4, 8:15
ADP private payrolls (October)
Preview for Friday
Only matters if it lands far from Friday’s consensus of plus 55,000 and moves the two-year yield before the official print
Wed 4, 8:30
Treasury quarterly refunding statement
August guidance kept nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes unchanged “for at least the next several quarters”; the enlarged long-end buybacks, up to $6 billion an operation in the 10 to 20 and 20 to 30 year sectors, ran only to 4 November and the Treasury said it would give more detail at this refunding
Dropping the “several quarters” language, or any coupon size increase, is the hawkish surprise for the long end: the 10-year was 5.13 percent on 21 October and 4.98 on 29 October, and a move back above 5.13 is the one rates outcome that has reliably hurt bitcoin this year. A buyback programme extended or enlarged is the mild upside surprise
Wed 4, 8:30
International trade (September)
August deficit $105.6 billion, a record, on $420.8 billion of imports; the third-quarter GDP report said exports fell, led by petroleum products, and imports rose
A second deficit above $100 billion keeps net exports a drag on fourth-quarter growth, which the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow will show the same week; it is a dollar story, not a crypto story
Wed 4, 10:00
ISM Services PMI (October)
54.9 in September; consensus 54.7. S&P Global’s flash services index fell to 57.9 from 58.8
Services prices paid is the read on whether fuel is passing into the rest of the economy; a rise would support the dissenters’ case
Thu 5, 7:00
Bank of England decision and Monetary Policy Report
A 25 basis point increase is expected, the first of a new cycle; the vote split and the guidance on what follows are the live parts
A hold is the surprise. A hawkish Bank of England alongside a Fed on hold weakens the dollar at the margin, which is mildly supportive, but the bigger read-through is that the global cycle is tightening, not easing, into 2027
Thu 5, 7:30
Challenger job cuts (October)
Announced layoffs are the leading edge of any labour-market turn
A jump would front-run Friday; not a mover on its own
Thu 5, 8:30
194,000 in the week to 24 October, four-week average 196,750, continuing claims 1.70 million; claims have not risen since the September reference week
A print above 230,000 would be the first crack in the one series that has given the hawks cover all year; below 210,000 it is not a market event
Fri 6, 8:30
Employment Situation (October)
September payrolls plus 29,000, unemployment 4.2 percent (4.175 unrounded), average hourly earnings plus 0.1 percent on the month and 3.0 percent on the year, participation 61.8 percent; July and August revised down a combined 60,000. Consensus for October: plus 55,000, unemployment 4.2 percent, earnings plus 0.3 percent
This is the week’s catalyst. Payrolls at or above 55,000 with unemployment at 4.2 or lower keeps December live and gives bitcoin no relief from rates. A negative print, or unemployment at 4.4 percent or higher, is the dovish surprise that pulls December pricing below 50 percent; it would also be the first print since March to break the 4.1 to 4.3 range the unemployment rate has held
Fri 6, 10:00
University of Michigan sentiment, preliminary November
October final 48.0; one-year inflation expectations 4.7 percent, long-run 3.5 percent
Long-run expectations above 3.5 percent are the number the hawks quote; a fall back toward 3.0 would be the dovish surprise
Weekly
EIA retail diesel (Mon), petroleum status (Wed), Freddie Mac mortgage survey (Thu)
Diesel $6.352 a gallon on 26 October, up $0.076 on the week and $2.634 on the year; 30-year mortgage 7.24 percent on 29 October, down from 7.32
Diesel back above $6.40 keeps the cost-push alive into winter heating season; mortgage rates falling for a third week would be the first easing of credit the household sector has had since September
Our View, And What Would Prove It Wrong
View
Confirm
Invalidate
Friday’s jobs report, not the election or the refunding, decides whether December stays a hike. Bitcoin gets no relief from rates next week; any advance has to be paid for by spot demand
Payrolls at or above 55,000 with unemployment at 4.2 percent or lower and earnings up 0.3 percent or more; the December increase holding above 60 percent on CME FedWatch after the print; the two-year yield closing the week at or above 4.61 percent, its 29 October level
Payrolls negative, or unemployment at 4.4 percent or higher, pulling the December probability below 50 percent, and BTC rising on it; that would mean the rates channel has started to transmit and the burden has shifted off spot demand. These thresholds are ours, not consensus figures
Lower Treasury yields are still not reaching bitcoin. The 10-year real yield fell from 2.77 to 2.63 percent in the eight sessions to 29 October and BTC fell about 7.7 percent over the same stretch, including 4.1 percent on 29 October while yields fell
BTC flat or lower through the week while the 10-year real yield holds at or below 2.70 percent; spot ETF flows net negative on the week
BTC closing the week higher with the real yield at or below 2.70 percent and net ETF inflows on at least three of the five sessions; that would mean the lower hurdle is feeding through after all
The refunding is a non-event unless the Treasury touches coupon sizes. The 10-year stays inside 4.90 to 5.15 percent through the week
Wednesday’s statement repeats the “at least the next several quarters” guidance; the 10-year closes every session inside the band; the buyback programme is extended rather than wound down
Guidance dropped or a coupon size increase announced, with the 10-year closing above 5.15 percent on Wednesday or Thursday; a close above 5.13 would already take out the 21 October high and extend the bitcoin drawdown
BTC is at the bottom of the band we set last week (77,600 to 80,400) and the band holds through the jobs report
No daily close below 76,518, the 30 October low, before Friday; a close back above 80,400 by Friday with ETF inflows on the day of the print
A daily close below 76,518 on any day before the jobs report, which would mean the selling is positioning for Friday rather than a reaction to it; Rohan’s levels take precedence over ours for the on-chain tests
The election is a 2027 catalyst for crypto, not a price catalyst next week
BTC’s move from Tuesday’s close to Wednesday’s close is smaller than 3 percent in either direction whatever the result
A move larger than 5 percent on Wednesday 4 November with no US data surprise that morning; that would mean positioning for the result was larger than the thin October flows suggested
Bottom Line
The Fed has told the market it is waiting for data, and next week supplies the first piece that can move it. The sequence runs election first, refunding second, jobs report last, and the first two are tests of the long end rather than of the policy rate: a Democratic sweep and a steady refunding are both priced, so the surprises are a Republican Senate or a coupon size increase, and either shows up in the 10-year before it shows up in bitcoin. Friday is the real catalyst. A payroll print near consensus keeps the two dissents in the majority’s reach for December and leaves bitcoin where it has been all month, trading on spot demand with no help from rates. Only a negative print, or an unemployment rate outside the 4.1 to 4.3 range it has held since March, changes that, and until it does the 76,518 low of 30 October is the level to defend and 80,400 is the level that has to be recovered before any rally counts as more than short covering.
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