Macro Outlook: Rising Bullish Sentiment Amidst Steady Short-Term Uptrend
This week’s U.S. economic calendar is light on major data releases. Market attention is primarily directed towards Federal Reserve officials’ interpretations of recent commentary suggesting a possible single interest rate cut in 2025.
Analysis of options market data shows a prevailing bullish sentiment: the Call/Put open interest ratio has reached 1.55, accompanied by increasing premiums for call options. At the same time, short-term implied volatility (IV) has dropped to a new 18-month low of 35–40%.
In short: the market is experiencing “euphoric sentiment amid calm volatility.” Under such conditions, Bitcoin could retest new highs within the next 30–45 days, targeting the $105K–$115K range. However, this mix of high sentiment and low volatility often conceals the build-up of excessive leverage. A sudden surge in IV or a meaningful drop below $100K could trigger a sharp deleveraging event.
Strategic Positioning: Capital Rotation into High-Quality Altcoins for Momentum Capture
From a capital allocation perspective, rotating a portion of capital into fundamentally strong and liquid altcoins may present an opportunity to capitalize on potential spillover momentum from Bitcoin’s upward trajectory. This edition of HTX DeepThink highlights promising sectors and projects worthy of investor attention.
SUI Ecosystem: All-Time High Market Cap, Undervalued Core Projec
The SUI chain has reached an all-time high in market cap, but its ecosystem projects have yet to follow with substantial gains. This opens a key window for early positioning in undervalued ecosystem leaders. HTX has listed two standout projects within the SUI ecosystem: Haedal and Bluefin.
Haedal is the dominant LST (liquid staking) protocol on SUI, commanding 76% of market share and benefiting from strong network effects.
Bluefin, SUI’s flagship perpetual DEX, currently holds a market cap of only $31.6M yet has achieved an annualized revenue of $8.2M, implying a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of just 3.8x—far lower than GMX (9.1x) and Drift (12.4x). The upcoming V2 upgrade will introduce veTokenomics and new trading incentives, potentially boosting both user activity and protocol revenues.
Given the rising attention on SUI’s mainnet, Haedal and Bluefin—both considered core infrastructure—appear to exhibit dual potential for valuation recovery and Beta-driven upside. These developments may warrant mid-term attention from market participants.
AttentionFi: Capitalizing on Bull Market User Acquisition Premium
As the current bull cycle accelerates, new Web3 projects are launching rapidly, and the cost of user acquisition is soaring. In traditional channels like Telegram, Google, or Red Note, user acquisition cost (UAC) is calculated via “traffic × conversion rate.” With CPCs at $0.5–1.0 and conversion rates around 10%, it can cost $5–10 to acquire a real, retained user.
Kaito offers a far more efficient “attention engine.” Its API charges based on a combination of reputation score and meaningful engagement. As a result, project teams can acquire real users with 3–4x higher retention at just $2–3 per user—much lower than traditional channels. With this model, Kaito has grown rapidly, expanding from 30 to 120 integrated projects in the past three months, and quadrupling API call volume.
Meanwhile, $KAITO staking has surged to 19.7M tokens, and the protocol has cumulatively bought back and burned 3.7M tokens, creating a strong demand-supply mismatch and deflationary pressure that supports higher price ceilings.
On the Base chain’s IDO platform Virtuals, users who stake ≥5,000 $KAITO can earn Virgen Points to redeem IDO allocations. Several recent IDOs have seen 10–30x returns on day one, forming a lucrative loop: stake → points → arbitrage.However, launching a project on Kaito’s Yapper Leaderboard requires significant voting and staking budgets. Teams with limited resources can first use GiveRep to identify quality community members and reputation-based seed users at zero cost, then scale with Kaito once traction builds. GiveRep is closely aligned with the SUI Foundation and has partnered with major SUI ecosystem projects like ika and Typus, with future airdrop expectations adding further appeal.
With the recent listing of $KAITO on HTX, its liquidity is expanding—and in a bull market where competition for user attention intensifies, Kaito’s combination of low-cost, high-precision targeting and deflationary tokenomics makes it a promising asset to watch.
*The above content is not an investment advice and does not constitute any offer or solicitation to offer or recommendation of any investment product.
About HTX DeepThink:
HTX DeepThink is a flagship market insights column created by HTX, dedicated to exploring global macro trends, key economic indicators, and major developments across the crypto industry. In a world where volatility is the norm, HTX DeepThink aims to help readers “ Find Order in Chaos.”
About HTX Research
HTX Research is the dedicated research arm of HTX Group, responsible for conducting in-depth analyses, producing comprehensive reports, and delivering expert evaluations across a broad spectrum of topics, including cryptocurrency, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends.
Connect with HTX Research Team: [email protected]
The post first appeared on HTX Square.
