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Bitcoin is holding its ground in a market where almost nothing else is performing well. Over the past seven days, BTC has gained roughly 3.5% while gold, the traditional refuge during geopolitical stress, is trading nearly flat on the week at -0.05%. This divergence is unfolding despite a rising US Dollar Index and Brent crude climbing, both of which typically weigh on risk assets.
The most significant development is the return of US buying demand through Coinbase. The Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase and offshore exchanges, turned positive for the first time since January, registering a reading of +0.00283 on March 2. This marks a meaningful shift after a prolonged negative stretch that lasted nearly 40 days, reflecting sustained selling pressure from US-based investors throughout the correction from above $90,000.
The timing of this shift matters significantly. When the Coinbase premium first flipped positive on February 24, Bitcoin responded with a sharp bounce of nearly 13%, rallying to repeatedly test the $70,000 level. That level has since become firm resistance, but the demand signal from US buyers remains active with four positive days within roughly a week since February 24.
Technical Indicators Support Recovery
Adding weight to the bullish case is a positive relative strength index signal on the daily chart. Between January 25 and March 1, Bitcoin's price printed a lower low while the 14-day RSI formed a higher low, creating a classic bullish divergence pattern. Price bounced above $70,000 briefly before correcting, but the structure remains intact with the RSI still forming a higher low while price maintains a lower low trajectory relative to late January.
The combination of both the Coinbase premium and the RSI divergence being active simultaneously creates compelling conditions for a sustained recovery attempt. These technical factors suggest underlying strength that could propel Bitcoin past the critical $70,000 barrier that has rejected every recent rally attempt.
Long-Term Holders Accumulate Aggressively
The demand signal extends beyond Coinbase activity. Glassnode data on Bitcoin's Hodler Net Position Change reveals a sharp surge in mid-to-long-term holder accumulation. On February 6, when Bitcoin was trading above $70,500, the 155-day+ hodler net position change stood at 3,399 BTC, indicating modest accumulation.
By March 3, with Bitcoin at a slightly lower price of $68,300, that figure had surged to 27,225 BTC, representing an increase of roughly eight times at a lower price level. This dramatic shift shows that conviction among mid-to-long-term holders is increasing even as short-term price action remains choppy. These wallets are making deliberate decisions to add at current levels, viewing the $67,000-$70,000 range as an accumulation zone rather than a distribution one.
Combined with the Coinbase premium returning positive, demand is building across two different cohorts: US spot buyers and longer-duration holders, both stepping in during elevated macro uncertainty. This conviction becomes even more striking when compared to gold's performance in the same environment.
Gold Struggles While Bitcoin Holds Firm
Gold, the asset that has dominated the safe-haven narrative throughout 2025 and into 2026, is faltering precisely when Bitcoin is holding firm. XAU/USD surged above $5,400 in recent sessions but has since corrected roughly 8%, briefly dipping below the psychological $5,000 level. It currently trades near $5,170, with weekly performance essentially flat at -0.05%.
This divergence suggests a potential shift in safe-haven dynamics. While gold traditionally benefits from geopolitical uncertainty and dollar weakness, Bitcoin is demonstrating resilience and attracting institutional flows despite these same headwinds. The contrast is particularly notable given the rising dollar and increasing oil prices, conditions that typically favor gold over risk assets.
Looking Ahead: The convergence of positive Coinbase premium, bullish RSI divergence, and aggressive accumulation by long-term holders creates a compelling setup for Bitcoin to challenge the $70,000 resistance level. If US institutional demand continues to strengthen and mid-to-long-term holders maintain their conviction, Bitcoin could be positioning itself as an alternative safe-haven asset alongside or potentially replacing gold in certain portfolios.
