The decision: –25 bps to a 4.00%–4.25% target range. Futures had it largely priced; the upside surprise (50 bps or ultra-dovish guidance) didn’t arrive. Powell emphasized caution and data-dependence. Markets now lean toward two additional 25 bps cuts in 2025, but participants are split — classic recipe for chop.
The tell: 10-year Treasury up, curve steepening. The 10-year yield rising likely signals that the market still has concerns about longer term inflation, which could be a headwind for risk assets. Keep that 10-year quote on your layout.
Meanwhile, stocks at highs (S&P 500, Nasdaq; small caps ripping) underscore that liquidity hopes remain alive — even if bonds are pushing back.
Mid-range rejection: The level we flagged on prior streams rejected cleanly; no sustained momentum post-FOMC.
Next spot to watch: Confluence of the 4h EMAs + prior swing-low cluster. First “reaction zone” for a constructive retest. Failure there opens a deeper sweep into range-low territory.
ETH attempted a push around the FOMC window, but failed to push above the weekly open. Market structure isn’t broken, just indecisive. We want either a swift reclaim above the cluster or a tagged retest lower with buyers stepping in.
Market breadth: TOTAL3 & “Others”
TOTAL3 (crypto market cap ex-BTC & ETH) is boxed between prior ATH bands. Above = risk-on for alts; below = risk-off. While you can’t trade it directly, it’s a vibe check: it confirms whether alt strength is there or not.
“ Others” shows a similar picture: breakouts met the first big supply shelf and faded. Not a breakdown (yet) but it’s a battlefield.
Translation: The risk-reward favors patience until we get confirmation (break and hold) or a deeper retest (flush into demand).
Setups we walked through
We focus on structure + EMAs with simple, falsifiable plans. No leverage needed for these ideas; spot lets you survive volatility.
DOGE(strength → hesitation): Strong trend signal from bullish EMA crosses, but price is fighting to hold above prior swing-highs. Either flip/hold that shelf for continuation, or wait for the cleaner dip into the next demand box.
“I just got here” pattern (newer listings): Weeks of slow bleed → base → reclaim EMAs/Fibs → ride to logical targets. We showcased it using PUMP historically, then mapped EIGEN as today’s analogue: prolonged bleed, basing, EMAs turning up, constructive reclaim. For risk: keep stops below the impulse that kicked off the reclaim, and don’t force leverage.
Compression breakouts (alt bucket): A handful of alts show volatility contraction near monthly opens with fresh bullish EMA crosses. First steps are in; sustainability is the question. If the weekend resolves higher, breakout-continuation trades activate; if not, retest-buys lower down often offer better asymmetry.
Respect the 10-year. Rising long yields post-cut = “hawkish cut” conditions. If the 10-year cools, risk appetite improves; if it climbs, be selective.
Majors first. BTC reclaiming the mid-range with momentum is your green light for broader beta. If BTC drifts into the EMA/demand cluster and reacts well, alts get room to run.
Breadth confirmation. Want TOTAL3/“Others” to break and hold above supply bands. Otherwise, avoid chasing and look for fade → retest → reclaim structures.
Two entry archetypes only:
Breakout-strength: Fresh highs and higher-low support on low timeframes – but only if the market looks good as a whole.
Retest-logic: Flush into pre-mapped demand with EMAs rising underneath (your “plunge protection”).
Risk management: Position size so that your invalidation (below impulse or key EMA structure) equals a known % of portfolio risk. No hero leverage in a macro-heavy week.
Why this felt like a “hawkish cut”
Expected size (25 bps) → no upside surprise.
Powell’s tone: “not in a rush to ease” → markets re-priced path-of-cuts lower.
Dot plot: bias to cut again this year, but the committee is split.
Bonds: long rates up; steepening curve.
These are classic “hawkish cut” breadcrumbs — and they map cleanly to the crypto hesitation we saw.
If you haven’t been following our Friday Trading Spaces livestream (via @krakenfx) then you’re missing the alpha.
Here’s from last Friday’s discussion where @Dentoshi and I were looking at ETH price action. Fast forward to today and you’ll see how it played out 🎯pic.twitter.com/3G3IFQefWJ
If you’re new to our Trading Spaces series, check recent recaps on the Kraken Blog for deeper breakdowns of Dentoshi’s momentum and retest frameworks.
Final word: We’re at that knife-edge: either a quick show of strength across majors unlocks the next leg, or we get a deeper markdown that gifts better entries. Until then, let the market come to your levels. Name your chart pattern, map the invalidation and wait for your shot.
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