Trading Spaces recap: Fed’s hawkish cut, crypto’s wobble and where Dentoshi is hunting next

— Kraken (@krakenfx) September 19, 2025

Macro in one chart (and why it matters)

The decision: –25 bps to a 4.00%–4.25% target range. Futures had it largely priced; the upside surprise (50 bps or ultra-dovish guidance) didn’t arrive. Powell emphasized caution and data-dependence. Markets now lean toward two additional 25 bps cuts in 2025, but participants are split — classic recipe for chop.

The tell: 10-year Treasury up, curve steepening. The 10-year yield rising likely signals that the market still has concerns about longer term inflation, which could be a headwind for risk assets. Keep that 10-year quote on your layout.

Meanwhile, stocks at highs (S&P 500, Nasdaq; small caps ripping) underscore that liquidity hopes remain alive — even if bonds are pushing back.

What we’re seeing on the crypto charts

Bitcoin (trend-following lens)

• Mid-range rejection: The level we flagged on prior streams rejected cleanly; no sustained momentum post-FOMC.

• Next spot to watch: Confluence of the 4h EMAs + prior swing-low cluster. First “reaction zone” for a constructive retest. Failure there opens a deeper sweep into range-low territory.

Ethereum (momentum check)

ETH attempted a push around the FOMC window, but failed to push above the weekly open. Market structure isn’t broken, just indecisive. We want either a swift reclaim above the cluster or a tagged retest lower with buyers stepping in.

Market breadth: TOTAL3 & “Others”

• TOTAL3 (crypto market cap ex-BTC & ETH) is boxed between prior ATH bands. Above = risk-on for alts; below = risk-off. While you can’t trade it directly, it’s a vibe check: it confirms whether alt strength is there or not.

• “ Others” shows a similar picture: breakouts met the first big supply shelf and faded. Not a breakdown (yet) but it’s a battlefield.

Translation: The risk-reward favors patience until we get confirmation (break and hold) or a deeper retest (flush into demand).

Setups we walked through

We focus on structure + EMAs with simple, falsifiable plans. No leverage needed for these ideas; spot lets you survive volatility.

• DOGE (strength → hesitation): Strong trend signal from bullish EMA crosses, but price is fighting to hold above prior swing-highs. Either flip/hold that shelf for continuation, or wait for the cleaner dip into the next demand box.

• “I just got here” pattern (newer listings): Weeks of slow bleed → base → reclaim EMAs/Fibs → ride to logical targets. We showcased it using PUMP historically, then mapped EIGEN as today’s analogue: prolonged bleed, basing, EMAs turning up, constructive reclaim. For risk: keep stops below the impulse that kicked off the reclaim, and don’t force leverage.

• Compression breakouts (alt bucket): A handful of alts show volatility contraction near monthly opens with fresh bullish EMA crosses. First steps are in; sustainability is the question. If the weekend resolves higher, breakout-continuation trades activate; if not, retest-buys lower down often offer better asymmetry.

let's discuss the dipperino;

– levels $BTC $ETH $SOL

– now what?

– our fresh entries (this AM) $ENA $EIGEN pic.twitter.com/QrPrE2qYQk

— Dentoshi (@Dentoshi) September 22, 2025

Playbook for the next 1–2 weeks

1. Respect the 10-year. Rising long yields post-cut = “hawkish cut” conditions. If the 10-year cools, risk appetite improves; if it climbs, be selective.

2. Majors first. BTC reclaiming the mid-range with momentum is your green light for broader beta. If BTC drifts into the EMA/demand cluster and reacts well, alts get room to run.

3. Breadth confirmation. Want TOTAL3/“Others” to break and hold above supply bands. Otherwise, avoid chasing and look for fade → retest → reclaim structures.

4. Two entry archetypes only:

   • Breakout-strength: Fresh highs and higher-low support on low timeframes – but only if the market looks good as a whole.

   • Retest-logic: Flush into pre-mapped demand with EMAs rising underneath (your “plunge protection”).

5. Risk management: Position size so that your invalidation (below impulse or key EMA structure) equals a known % of portfolio risk. No hero leverage in a macro-heavy week.

Why this felt like a “hawkish cut”

• Expected size (25 bps) → no upside surprise.

• Powell’s tone: “not in a rush to ease” → markets re-priced path-of-cuts lower.

• Dot plot: bias to cut again this year, but the committee is split.

• Bonds: long rates up; steepening curve.

• These are classic “hawkish cut” breadcrumbs — and they map cleanly to the crypto hesitation we saw.

If you haven’t been following our Friday Trading Spaces livestream (via @krakenfx) then you’re missing the alpha.

Here’s from last Friday’s discussion where @Dentoshi and I were looking at ETH price action. Fast forward to today and you’ll see how it played out

pic.twitter.com/3G3IFQefWJ

— Matthew Howells-Barby Ξ mhb.eth (@matthewbarby) September 22, 2025

Want more of Dentoshi’s process?

If you’re new to our Trading Spaces series, check recent recaps on the Kraken Blog for deeper breakdowns of Dentoshi’s momentum and retest frameworks.

Final word: We’re at that knife-edge: either a quick show of strength across majors unlocks the next leg, or we get a deeper markdown that gifts better entries. Until then, let the market come to your levels. Name your chart pattern, map the invalidation and wait for your shot.

Trade with Dentoshi on Kraken Pro

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