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Welcome to our final edition of Bitfinex Alpha 2025. In this edition we look back at what influenced the market in 2025, and what we believe will determine performance in 2026.

In what was an end of an era, we saw a clear structural break from Bitcoin’s traditional four-year, halving-driven framework. With annual BTC issuance now below 1 percent, the marginal supply shock from each halving has diminished, reducing its ability to dictate market cycles. BTC’s price behaviour is therefore increasingly shaped by demand-side forces and macroeconomic conditions rather than mechanical scarcity alone.