Soft Jobs Data Resets Market Expectations
After the July FOMC meeting, the Fed left the funds rate at 5.25%-5.50% and offered no timeline for rate cuts, stoking fears of a “higher-for-longer” regime. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.24%, the U.S.-Dollar Index reclaimed the 100 handle, gold slipped below $3,270, and Bitcoin retreated to the $116,000 area as on-chain activity cooled.
Three days later, the macro narrative flipped: July non-farm payrolls “collapsed,” with only 73k jobs versus the 180k consensus, while May–June gains were revised down by roughly 129k (-90 %). The sudden chill forced an aggressive rate reset—CME FedWatch showed the probability of a September cut surging from 38% to 82%, with two cuts by year-end now priced at 64%. The 10-year yield slid below 4.10%, gold bounced $40 to $3,363/oz, and Bitcoin briefly spiked before recession angst pushed it to an intraday low near $112,000.
Yet the broader economy still resembles a growth-slowdown rather than a full-blown recession. By 2025 Q2, household debt stood at 98% of disposable income—well below the 2008 peak of 133%. Credit-card delinquencies eased from 2.7% to 2.5%; retail sales are holding a 2.8%-3.1% YoY band. America’s richest 10% control 72% of household wealth and finance nearly half of total consumption, providing a sturdy demand floor.
On the corporate side, JPMorgan and Bank of America report commercial-loan growth of 5%-7% YoY, with no material uptick in loss reserves. Historically, a mix of softer payrolls and sticky-but-easing inflation marks the Fed’s turn toward accommodation, ushering in a “high-volatility liquidity window” where BTC and gold attract hedging flows while leveraged alt-coins face valuation and deleveraging pressure.
Regulatory Shift Opens Up DeFi and RWA Momentum
The truly disruptive catalyst comes from regulation. On 31 July, SEC Chair Paul Atkins unveiled “Project Crypto,” pledging to put U.S. finance “fully on-chain” via deregulation, innovation safe-harbors and exemptions. Atkins stated that most crypto assets should not be defaulted into securities status and that AMMs and on-chain lending are “non-intermediated financial activity” deserving legal recognition. The signal unlocks huge upside for DeFi protocols such as Uniswap, Aave and Lido, long suppressed by the “securities overhang.” According to data from HTX, DeFi tokens including UNI and AAVE have recorded notable gains in August.
Atkins also floated a “Super-App” license for brokers to aggregate equities, crypto, staking and lending. The draft further names ERC-3643—with its ONCHAINID permission layer—as the reference standard for tokenized RWA, paving a compliant path for real estate, private equity and other trillion-dollar markets.
Crucially, the SEC will revise the decades-old Howey Test, introducing clear disclosure waivers and safe harbors for airdrops, ICOs and staking, ending the era where founders had to “flee to Cayman” or geo-block U.S. users; venture capital could now re-shore, reigniting an on-chain startup cycle in America.
Outlook and Structural Signals
Bitcoin and Ethereum remain central to market structure, with BTC dominance and stablecoin basis offering key signals for capital rotation.
High-beta altcoins and leveraged products may remain under pressure, particularly if the U.S. dollar strengthens or long-term yields rebound above 4.40%.
Tokens with clear compliance paths—especially DeFi governance assets and RWA tokens built on ERC-3643—are increasingly positioned to benefit from evolving policy support and real-world adoption narratives.
With macro softening, liquidity conditions easing, and regulatory upgrading now converging, Bitcoin’s role as a global inflation hedge and policy-beta asset is hardening, while on-chain finance enjoys its first genuine policy tail-wind—setting the stage for the next structural up-cycle in crypto markets.
*The above content is not an investment advice and does not constitute any offer or solicitation to offer or recommendation of any investment product.
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