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After five straight months of decline, Ethereum (ETH) is entering May with renewed optimism. Analysts point to a combination of historical trends, on-chain metrics, whale accumulation, and upcoming upgrades as strong catalysts for a potential price rebound.
1. May’s Strong Historical Performance
According to data from CoinGlass, May has historically been Ethereum’s best-performing month, with an average return of 27.36%.
While past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, the pattern suggests a favorable seasonal trend. Analyst Cyclop echoed this sentiment, predicting ETH could reach $2,500 by month’s end.
2. Undervalued On-Chain Metrics
ETH’s MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio is at its lowest level since March 2020, a period that marked the beginning of a major recovery. A low MVRV ratio often signals undervaluation. This particular signal has only occurred six times in the last decade—typically preceding strong gains over the following 3 to 12 months.
3. Continued Whale Accumulation
Despite recent price weakness, large ETH holders have increased their positions. Data from CryptoQuant shows that accumulation addresses held 15.5 million ETH in early March. By May 3, that number had jumped to 19 million—a 22.5% increase. Analysts say this reflects growing conviction among major investors, suggesting expectations of a recovery are high.
4. Upcoming Pectra Upgrade and Macro Tailwinds
Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade, set for May 7, aims to improve wallet usability and boost user experience—key factors for dApp adoption and long-term ecosystem growth. The same day also brings the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. A dovish outcome could amplify ETH’s momentum.
Looking Ahead: While external factors like Fed policy may introduce short-term volatility, analysts believe these four core drivers put Ethereum in a strong position for a rebound in May.
