All of them are being read against the same backdrop: a US-led conflict in the Middle East that has already forced the Fed and ECB to hold, and an oil price that is keeping inflation at the top of every policy discussion.
The US–Israel–Iran Conflict — Ongoing
The US and Israel launched strikes against Iran on February 28, opening what has become the most significant geopolitical shock to global markets since the early weeks of the Russia–Ukraine war. The Strait of Hormuz (through which roughly 20% of global oil and gas transits) has been the central pressure point throughout, with Iran threatening to close it entirely in response to further escalation.
The macro consequences have been direct. The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50–3.75% at its March 18 meeting, explicitly acknowledging the conflict is making its inflation and employment mandates harder to assess simultaneously.
The ECB met the following day on March 19, held its deposit facility rate at 2.0%, and revised its 2026 eurozone growth forecast down to 0.9% while revising inflation up to 2.6%, directly attributing both moves to the war’s impact on energy prices. Two of the world’s major central banks have, in effect, had their policy paths disrupted by a single geopolitical event.
Trump posted on Truth Social that the US and Iran have held “very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities,” and has instructed the Department of Defense to postpone strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five-day period, subject to the success of ongoing discussions. Iran has not officially confirmed any dialogue. The five-day window creates a genuine diplomatic opening, but the pause is conditional and the broader conflict remains unresolved.
For traders, the key variable is oil and what it means for inflation. Any re-escalation that threatens Strait of Hormuz transit again would immediately reprice energy inflation expectations and, with them, the rate-cut timeline that risk assets have been watching all quarter. The conflict is the condition under which every data release in the weeks ahead will be read, including the NFP, PCE, and CPI events covered below.
Relevant markets on Kraken Pro: BTC/USD and ETH/USD spot, BTC and ETH perpetual futures, and cross-market exposure across 300+ contracts.
BTC/ETH Monthly Options Expiry (Deribit) — Friday, March 27, 08:00 UTC
The last Friday of every month, significant volumes of Bitcoin and Ethereum options settle on Deribit at 08:00 UTC. This month’s expiry arrives during a period of compressed but recovering price action. BTC has been forming a rising floor since the conflict began while facing resistance in the low $70k range, and put volume in the derivatives market has been elevated throughout.
Monthly options expiries matter to active traders because they reshape the intraday hedge landscape. As contracts settle, market makers adjust gamma and delta exposures, and the hours following settlement often see a directional shift as repositioning into April contracts begins. Whether this expiry acts as a clearing event (allowing the market to find direction) or extends the current range depends on where spot prices sit relative to open interest concentration at settlement.
Traders in BTC and ETH spot and futures markets on Kraken Pro should note the 08:00 UTC settlement time on Friday morning.
Looking Ahead: Next Week and Beyond
Three events in the first two weeks of April collectively represent the most concentrated macro data window of Q1, and all three will be read against whatever state the conflict and oil market are in at the time.
US NFP — Friday, April 3, 08:30 ET
This is the most consequential single data point ahead. February’s employment report showed nonfarm payrolls contracting by 92,000, the first negative monthly print in years. That result arrived during the most acute phase of the conflict and reflected a labor market that had been slowing through the second half of 2025.
The March reading arrives on April 3. If the print confirms a second consecutive contraction, the stagflation debate moves to center stage: deteriorating employment alongside oil-driven inflation creates the specific environment in which the Fed has least room to act.A policy-constrained Fed (unable to cut because of inflation, unable to hold because of deteriorating growth) is a more complex backdrop for risk assets than a straightforward rate-cut narrative.
If March payrolls come in resilient, attention shifts to whether the conflict’s five-day pause translates into something more durable, and whether the Fed can resume a gradual easing path toward the end of 2026. Either outcome carries meaningful implications for how risk assets, including crypto, are positioned going into the April FOMC.
GDP Q4 2025 Third Estimate + PCE — Wednesday, April 9, 08:30 ET
Two data points in one release. The BEA’s third and final estimate of Q4 2025 GDP lands alongside the February PCE print. The second GDP estimate had already revised growth down sharply to 0.7% annualised from 1.4% at the initial print; the third estimate will confirm or adjust that figure.
It is worth being precise about what the concurrent PCE release represents. This is February data, collected before the conflict began on February 28. It will not reflect the oil shock, the March FOMC decision, or any other post-conflict development.
What it does offer is a clean pre-conflict inflation baseline: the last reading of the Fed’s preferred price gauge before energy markets were disrupted. Traders will use it to assess how much inflationary pressure already existed in the system before the oil move, which in turn informs how much additional pressure the conflict may have added.
US CPI — Friday, April 10, 08:30 ET
One day after GDP and PCE, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases March CPI. February came in at +2.4% year-on-year. The March reading is the first that will begin to capture the energy price move from the conflict, though the most acute phase of the oil spike occurred toward the end of February and into March, so the full pass-through may not yet be visible in this print. Markets will be watching the energy contribution closely and assessing whether core inflation is beginning to show secondary effects.
The April 9-10 back-to-back releases represent the last major inflation and growth data before the April 28–29 FOMC meeting, and how they land will largely determine the tone going into that decision.
Spot, margin, and futures markets on Kraken Pro are relevant across all three releases. The 08:30 ET print times typically trigger immediate volatility across BTC/USD, ETH/USD, and correlated markets.
Closing context
The three weeks ahead are structured as follows:
Friday’s options expiry resets crypto derivatives positioning into a period of genuine geopolitical uncertainty
Next week’s jobs report tests whether the US labor market deterioration is a single data point or a trend
The week after brings back-to-back PCE and CPI readings that will directly condition the April FOMC
Traders who have thought through their exposure across each of these events (and the conflict backdrop that sits underneath all of them) are better placed than those reacting to each release in isolation.
Past market behavior is not a reliable indicator of future results.
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