TL;DR
Nonfarm payrolls for July release August 7, the first major data point after the Fed’s 9–3 vote on July 29 to hold rates at 3.50%–3.75%, its most divided decision since 2016.
July CPI lands August 12 and July PPI follows August 13, the two inflation reports markets will weigh most heavily ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting.
FOMC minutes from the July meeting publish August 19, detailing how the committee discussed the three-way dissent from regional Fed presidents Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan.
Weekly BTC and ETH options and futures expire on Deribit and CME every Friday, landing on August 7 alongside jobs data and August 14 alongside retail sales and consumer sentiment data.
This fortnight brings no Fed, ECB, or Bank of England rate decision, but it carries three of the most closely watched US data releases of the summer plus the minutes from a Fed meeting that ended in an unusually divided vote. July’s jobs report, CPI, and PPI arrive within a six-day stretch, followed by minutes that show how split the Fed’s committee actually was.
Nonfarm payrolls (July): August 7, 2026
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the July employment report on August 7, covering nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate, and wage growth. This report lands roughly a week after the Federal Reserve’s July 29 decision to hold its policy rate at 3.50%–3.75%, a decision that carried a three-way dissent from regional Fed presidents Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan, all of whom preferred a 25 basis point hike instead.
Traders are watching payrolls for signals on how much room the Fed has before its September 15–16 meeting. If job growth comes in soft, markets may lean further into rate hold expectations; if it surprises to the upside, the case the dissenters made gets harder to dismiss. Historically, major payrolls prints have moved risk assets, including Bitcoin and Ether, within minutes of release.
The report also lands the same day as the weekly derivatives expiries covered below, which can compound intraday volatility. BTC/USD, ETH/USD, and related futures markets on Kraken Pro are most exposed to the reaction window.
CPI (July): August 12, 2026
The Consumer Price Index for July releases on August 12 and is the window’s most closely watched inflation print. It follows a Fed decision that already saw three of twelve voting members push for a hike rather than a hold, meaning this report carries added weight for September rate-path expectations.
If headline or core CPI runs hotter than the prior month, markets may price in a firmer Fed stance, a scenario some traders view as pressuring risk assets broadly. If inflation continues to cool, the opposite repositioning becomes possible. Historically, CPI surprises have produced some of the sharpest single-day moves across both traditional and crypto markets.
Given the size of the dissent at the July meeting, this print may carry more weight for Fed commentary than usual. BTC/USD and ETH/USD spot and futures markets on Kraken Pro typically see the fastest reaction.
PPI (July): August 13, 2026
July Producer Price Index data releases on August 13, one day after CPI. PPI captures price pressure further up the supply chain and feeds directly into forecasts for the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, personal consumption expenditures, which releases later in August, outside this window.
Traders use the CPI and PPI combination to refine expectations heading into the September FOMC meeting. If both prints point the same direction, that combined signal tends to carry more weight than either report alone.
f they diverge, markets may treat the picture as unresolved and wait for additional data. Historically, PPI has produced a smaller standalone reaction than CPI, but can amplify or soften the prior day’s move. Spot BTC and ETH markets on Kraken Pro are the most directly relevant during this data cluster.
FOMC July meeting minutes: August 19, 2026
Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s July 28–29 meeting release on August 19. The meeting itself produced a 9 to 3 vote to hold rates, with regional Fed presidents Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point increase, the first unified three-member dissent since September 2016.
The minutes will show how the broader committee discussed that split and how seriously a hike was considered. Traders are watching for language that either validates or downplays the dissenters’ concerns, since that framing shapes expectations heading into the September 15–16 meeting.
If the minutes reveal broader hawkish sentiment than the vote alone implied, markets may reassess how likely a rate increase becomes; if they show the dissent as an isolated view, that repricing may not materialize.
Historically, FOMC minutes have moved rate-sensitive assets, including major crypto pairs, in the hours following release. BTC/USD, ETH/USD, and related futures markets on Kraken Pro are the primary venues for this reaction.
Weekly BTC and ETH derivatives expiries: August 7 and August 14, 2026
Deribit and CME both run weekly BTC and ETH options and futures expiries every Friday, landing on August 7 and August 14 within this window. The August 7 expiry coincides with the July jobs report, and the August 14 expiry lands alongside July retail sales and preliminary consumer sentiment data, compounding potential volatility on both days.
Options positioning around open interest levels tends to concentrate price action into the settlement window. BTC/USD and ETH/USD options and futures markets on Kraken Pro are most relevant heading into each Friday close.
Also on the radar
Other notable items this window include a Story Protocol token unlock (August 13), Pi Network’s node upgrade deadline (August 11), and the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium we’re co-hosting with SALT (August 17–20). None carry the same immediate market weight as the data above.
What this means for traders
This window is shaped less by a single catalyst and more by a sequence: jobs data, two inflation reports, and Fed minutes that reveal how divided policymakers really are.
Traders may find it useful to track how each release builds on the last rather than treating any one report in isolation. None of this points to a predetermined outcome.
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past market behavior is not a reliable indicator of future results. Trading involves risk.
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