PPI releases this morning, the Senate Banking Committee takes up the most consequential US crypto legislation of the year on Thursday, and NVIDIA and Walmart report next week.
Producer Price Index (April 2026) — today, May 13
The April PPI print lands at 8:30 a.m. ET this morning. PPI measures prices received by domestic producers and functions as a pipeline view of inflation: wholesale cost pressures tend to feed through to consumer prices over time, making this a useful leading indicator rather than a lagging one.
The April data arrives in a specific macro context. The Q1 2026 GDP advance estimate showed the economy expanding at a solid pace, while the PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, came in at 4.5% for the quarter, well above the Fed’s 2% target. The FOMC held rates at 3.50–3.75% at its April 29 meeting and explicitly flagged elevated inflation in the statement.
April CPI was released yesterday. With that backdrop, today’s PPI print either reinforces the stickiness narrative or provides some early evidence of easing. Traders should note where the print lands relative to consensus before interpreting any market response.
A hotter-than-expected figure adds to the case for extended holds and limits the Fed’s room ahead of the June 16-17 meeting. A soft print gives the disinflation story some oxygen. Neither outcome resolves the picture on its own.
The FOMC minutes, expected around May 20, will provide more detail on how the committee assessed the inflation trajectory at its April 29 deliberations. Past market behavior is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Relevant markets on Kraken Pro: BTC/USD, ETH/USD, and USD-denominated futures pairs.
CLARITY Act Senate Banking Committee markup — Thursday, May 14
On Thursday at 10:30 a.m. ET, the Senate Banking Committee meets to take up the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, the bill that would define whether digital assets are securities or commodities, clarify the respective jurisdictions of the SEC and CFTC, and establish a legal operating framework for US crypto markets.
This is the most significant regulatory event for the crypto industry since the GENIUS Act was signed into law in July 2025.
The markup arrives with a specific, recent complication. On May 9, the three largest US banking trade groups formally rejected the Tillis-Alsobrooks stablecoin yield compromise that had been framed as the primary breakthrough unlocking the bill’s advancement.
Their objection: that activity-linked stablecoin rewards are economically equivalent to deposit interest, a position that, if it holds enough Republican committee members, could stall or reshape the vote. Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott has not delayed the hearing.
There are three realistic outcomes:
- The committee advances the bill out of markup, clearing the path toward Senate floor consideration and the White House’s July 4 passage target.
- The hearing becomes a public amendment session but doesn’t produce a final vote, extending negotiations into the summer.
- The markup stalls, compressing the legislative window and creating real risk the bill doesn’t clear the Senate before the midterm election cycle takes over.
Polymarket odds of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 were pricing around 60-70% before this week’s banking lobby pushback.
For traders, the stakes are concrete.
A successful markup advances the bill toward a framework that would establish clear rules for crypto exchanges, token classification, and stablecoin issuance in the US, reducing the regulatory uncertainty that has shaped how institutions approach the asset class.
A stall extends that uncertainty. The specific language on DeFi protocol liability, ethics provisions, and the final stablecoin yield boundaries will determine how the industry receives the outcome. Past market behavior is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Relevant markets on Kraken Pro: BTC/USD, ETH/USD, stablecoin pairs.
NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 earnings — Wednesday, May 20
NVIDIA reports its first quarter of fiscal year 2027 on Wednesday, May 20 after market close, with the conference call beginning at 2:00 p.m. PT. The data center business, the primary engine of recent growth, is the number traders watch. NVIDIA is the clearest public proxy for the AI infrastructure buildout, and its results carry weight well beyond semiconductors.
The connection to crypto markets is less direct but real. High-performance compute demand, energy infrastructure investment, and risk appetite across the technology sector all influence how institutional capital moves between asset classes.
Revenue consensus is estimated around $78.6 billion. If data center growth signals continued AI capex momentum, that framing tends to support broader risk-on conditions. If NVIDIA’s results fall short, the question shifts to whether the AI buildout is moderating, with knock-on effects for risk appetite across markets. Past market behavior is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Relevant markets on Kraken Pro: BTC/USD, ETH/USD.
FOMC minutes from the April 28-29 meeting — Wednesday, May 20
The April 29 statement held rates at 3.50-3.75% while flagging elevated inflation and citing Middle East developments as a source of economic uncertainty. The minutes will reveal the depth of internal debate and whether any committee members are tilting toward the June 16-17 meeting as a potential inflection point.
Key things traders are watching for: how the committee weighed 4.5% Q1 PCE against growth risks, any discussion of balance sheet trajectory, and the level of consensus versus dissent on the inflation assessment. Past market behavior is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Walmart Q1 FY2027 earnings — Thursday, May 21
Walmart reports before the open on Thursday. Full-year EPS guidance of $2.75-$2.85 was set in February; the more actionable signal for traders will be what management says about tariff pass-through and consumer behavior.
Walmart’s commentary consistently functions as a leading indicator for how the US consumer economy is absorbing macro conditions. A miss with cautious guidance on tariff costs adds to the stagflation narrative that elevated PCE and inflation data have already established. Past market behavior is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Also this week
Standard Deribit weekly options expiries for BTC and ETH fall on Friday, May 15 and Friday, May 22, both settling at 08:00 UTC. Traders active in derivatives markets should monitor Deribit open interest data ahead of each date for positioning context.
US markets are closed on Memorial Day, May 25. Crypto markets trade through, but institutional liquidity typically thins around the holiday.
Closing context
The week’s structure is worth noting. Wednesday morning brings PPI. Thursday brings both the CLARITY Act markup and Retail Sales data. Wednesday evening brings NVIDIA, and Thursday morning brings Walmart. The FOMC minutes complete the macro picture around May 20.
These events don’t operate in isolation: the interaction between inflation data, regulatory news, and earnings sentiment determines the environment traders are working in, not any single data point alone. Structure your thinking before the week opens.
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past market behavior is not a reliable indicator of future results. Trading involves risk.
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