Crypto.com Alpha Navigator Quest for the month August
in this month's latest issue of Alpha Navigator, our institutional-focused report for the month of August by our official partner Crypto.com.
Asset class performance
Asset Class Correlations (BTC)
Derivative Pulse (only first one)
Fund flow tracker
Fund flow tracker continued
Gianing momentum (cont)
NFT: Eye of the Beholder
Macro View: Rallying through Rate Hike; Remain Cautious
The U.S. Fed raised rates by 75 bps last week, in-line with market expectations. While interpreting ‘Fed speak’ often is challenging, markets latched onto Fed Chairman Powell’s message of potentially decelerating the pace of rate hikes. As of 1 Aug, the S&P 500 is up 2.7% since the rate hike, with BTC up 1.7% and ETH up 3.2%.
Despite the rally in risk assets, they may not be out of the woods yet. All eyes will be on the U.S. CPI print come 10 August, as the Fed has signaled its actions will be data dependent. Also, recession risks are elevated - with the U.S. in technical recession according to some yardsticks after last week’s advance Q2 GDP print - and it remains to be seen whether the Fed can engineer a soft landing.
Asset Class Performance
The majority of risk assets rallied during the past 1-month period, but remain in drawdown territory over longer timeframes. The best 1-month performers were BTC and ETH, which rose +10.40% and +37.07%. respectively.
Asset Class Correlations
BTC continues to show positive correlations with other asset classes, and in particular with equities across the board.
Put-call ratios for both BTC and ETH have been falling recently, signaling a shift to more positive sentiment.
Fund Flow Tracker
Aggregated exchange balances for BTC and ETH have fallen over the past 1-month, implying a shift towards stronger inclinations to hold. The past month saw net outflows of 27.4K and 345.4K for BTC and ETH, respectively.
Fund Flow Tracker (cont.)
Despite a few sharp spikes, BTC balances held on OTC desks have been drifting down since end-May, potentially indicating strengthening inclinations to hold by larger investors.
Crypto is rallying along with other risk assets. BTC and ETH are up 10.4% and 37.0% in the past 1-month (as of 28 July), respectively.
Our Momentum Basket contains the top 15 tokens ranked by 1-month price performance, selected from the top tokens by market cap in each of the Layers 1 & 2, DeFi, GameFi, and NFT categories.
The average performance of the tokens in the basket was +56.6% during this period compared to 37.0% for ETH and 10.4% for BTC
Gaining Momentum (cont.)
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