Bitcoin's (BTC) slide seems to have no end in sight, with investor sentiment showing extreme fear. Yet, there's a light at the end of the tunnel, and to understand where Bitcoin goes from here, we need to step back and look at the bigger picture.
Bitcoin Log Long-Term Chart
As per our in-depth analysis, Bitcoin's long-term logarithmic regression channel is still in play. In the worst-case bearish scenario, the BTC price can retest the lower ban of the channel, which can be found near the $10,000 psychological number.
In the short term, the $20,000 support level will play a significant role because it's near the 50 Simple Moving Average (SMA), which tracks the 4-year halving cycle.
Additionally, $20,000 also represents the all-time high from the previous bull cycle.
4-Year Halving Cycle
The current sell-off follows the 4-year halving cycle.
After the first and second halving events, Bitcoin made a new all-time high, followed by a 13-month bearish market in both cases. A crypto bear market usually has an average length of 9.6 months.
Time-wise, if the current sell-off from the November 2021 all-time high continues to follow the 4-year halving cycle, we can expect Bitcoin to find an ultimate bottom by around December 2022.
Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillator has fallen below the previous 2 valleys reaching the lowest monthly reading of 41.96, which signals that we're still in a bearish market.
Looking forward
In the short term, we can expect the sell-off to slow down around the $20,000 support, but the analysis suggests a bottom to only emerge by the end of the year.
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