Macro Research: Crypto Market Unexpectedly Plunges, did Whales Dump Ahead of MtGox?

Jul 4, 2024 7 min read
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Macro Environment:

Minutes from the June Federal Reserve meeting reiterated officials’ cautious stance. The minutes indicated that more data is needed to confirm confidence in starting rate cuts, with most agreeing that the US economy is cooling down. “New Fed Communique” also reported that Fed officials hinted at no rush to cut rates, with general satisfaction towards a wait-and-see approach. According to current FedWatch data, most traders are betting that there will be no rate cut at the end of this month’s meeting.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell remains ambiguous about a rate cut in September and emphasizes that employment data is his primary concern.

Due to the impacts of the Mt. Gox incident and expectations of central bank sell-offs, Bitcoin (BTC) prices have continued to be under pressure this week, leading the market to weaken. On July 4th, the launch of the Ethereum spot ETF, anticipated last week, did not materialize, exacerbating speculative sentiment in the market. As a result, the Bitcoin fear index has shifted from greed to a neutral range.

The bearish trend on Thursday was primarily driven by whales. As shared by dZaheer in a tweet, a certain whale sold $180 million worth of Bitcoin in just three minutes, potentially triggering a chain reaction of sell-offs that day.

Compared to the S&P 500 and gold, Bitcoin has shown relatively weak performance recently. Considering the potential for sentiment reversal following significant selling in the past, it may present a crucial buying opportunity for short-term trading.

High-Quality Tracks:

  1. Ton Sector Profit Assurance: The Total Value Locked (TVL) of the entire Ton ecosystem has grown rapidly since March this year, increasing more than sixfold in just four months. All costs on the Telegram advertising platform will be settled in TON. Making TON the sole settlement asset on the Telegram advertising platform is a major move, effectively empowering Ton by directly leveraging Telegram’s 900 million users. For TON, this means continuous buybacks of TON through advertising revenue on the Telegram platform. Specific Coins: Notcoin: Notcoin, a “click-to-earn” game, is the most popular Web3 application in the Telegram Apps Center and currently the most prominent project in the Ton ecosystem. Within a few months, its user base has exceeded 40 million. Catizen: Catizen is the largest gaming application platform in the Telegram ecosystem, with a total user base surpassing 20 million, including over 500,000 paying users and more than 1.25 million on-chain users. Uxlink: Uxlink is the largest social infrastructure project in the Telegram ecosystem, rapidly expanding based on familiar social connections. Publicly disclosed registered user data has already exceeded 10 million, making it a social infrastructure project with over 10 million users in the SocialFi sector.

  2. Tron on Waves Reliable Returns: Tron on Waves boasts industry-leading user activity, ranking second globally in terms of TVL and total market value of stablecoins on-chain, having processed over $12 trillion in transactions. On July 1st, Tron on Waves recorded over 7.49 million transactions, marking a new high for the year. Over the past 30 days, daily average transactions have exceeded 6.78 million, with a 6.6% increase month-on-month. In the first half of the year, Tron on Waves generated protocol revenues of $245 million, far surpassing Ethereum. Reasons to Buy Low: As one of the most stable tokens in this bull market cycle, Tron’s success rate far exceeds other tokens. Currently, Tron is not the most watched token in the market, offering higher chances of success. During bearish market trends, investing in TRX is a strategy worth considering.

User Focus:

1. Twitter’s Popular Tokens


In its 3.0 roadmap, ZKsync introduces the “elastic chain” architecture, evolving ZKsync from a single ZK-Rollup into a network of multiple ZK chains. Originally proposed as the “bridgeless superchain” in 2022, ZKsync achieves native, trustless, and low-cost interoperability between ZK chains. Elastic Chain is an effective solution within the current L1, L2 landscape. As blockchain launching barriers decrease, traditional protocols typically expand to support new networks and projects.

Elastic Chain allows traditional protocols to directly connect to newly joined chains and projects, saving development and promotional resources.


Jupiter, a Solana-based DEX aggregator, aims to provide liquidity for traders seeking optimal prices and minimal slippage. Originally conceived as an exchange engine, the protocol has evolved to include various products such as Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA), limit orders, and perpetual trading to meet diverse user needs.

On X platform, Jupiter announces that participants who voted on any JUP DAO proposal in the past 3 months are eligible for ASR equivalent to their staked JUP and voting activities. The total pool includes: 50 million JUP, 7.5 billion WEN, 7.5 million ZEUS, 7.5 million UPT, and 750,000 SHARK.


MANTRA is a high-quality Layer 1 blockchain designed for Real World Assets (RWA), aiming to bring global finance onto the blockchain. As a permissionless chain, it complies with and enforces real-world regulatory requirements. By offering advanced technical modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability, developers and institutions can easily engage in the evolving field of tokenized RWAs.

Today, MANTRA announces a significant collaboration with MAG, a leading UAE real estate developer, to tokenize MAG’s $5 billion real estate investment portfolio. With a total real estate portfolio value exceeding $50 billion, this partnership aims to revolutionize real estate investments through blockchain technology.

2. Popular DApps

Source: DappRadar
Source: DappRadar

World of Dypians is a metaverse sandbox and virtual game created by Dypius, where players can explore endless maps and engage in various activities such as hunting for rewards or purchasing items using digital currency. This virtual world offers unique opportunities for your adventures, showcasing interactive and growth experiences in an immersive digital environment. DYP serves as the foundational token of this ecosystem, supporting in-game transactions, rewards, and other operations. You can utilize DYP for cross-chain bridging operations, enabling the transfer of tokens between different blockchains, and maximize assets through Dypius Earn products.

The post first appeared on HTX Square.

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