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Bitcoin is entering a phase where weakening spot demand and persistent structural softness are colliding, revealing a market that is stabilising but far from healthy. Despite drifting higher from its recent lows, BTC remains trapped in a tight $84,000–$91,000 range while the S&P 500 sits near record highs, underscoring deepening relative weakness and a widening decoupling from traditional risk assets. On-chain data shows more than seven million BTC sitting at an unrealised loss, mirroring conditions last seen during the choppy consolidation of early 2022 and emphasizing the market’s struggle to reclaim its True Market Mean, the dividing line between mid-cycle fatigue and full bear-market deterioration. Yet capital inflows remain modestly positive, offering at least a thin buffer against any further downside.