TL;DR
In this episode of Trading Spaces:
The move that scared traders wasn’t just the drop — it was the speed. BTC cut through multiple support zones with almost no meaningful pause.
Den’s base case: a bounce/consolidation first, then a potential “drip lower” unless macro conditions improve materially.
Bottoms are usually a time game, not a price game. Major bottoms tend to come after weeks/months of boredom, not days of chaos.
Weekly RSI is oversold, but that’s not a buy signal by itself. In prior cycles, RSI dipping sub-30 happened months before the eventual bottom.
ETH looks structurally worse than BTC right now, with key supports sliced and a “range-y” structure that’s harder to trust.
HYPE is the notable outlier showing isolated strength, but it’s now pressing into heavy resistance — and Den wants a clean reclaim before getting bullish.
Macro backdrop: why this didn’t start in crypto
Matt framed this week’s selloff as an extension of a broader risk reset that spilled into crypto — not a purely crypto-native event.
Key ingredients:
AI/mega-cap volatility and “Are we out ahead of our skis?” jitters
Huge capex expectations (and the market questioning risk appetite)
Rotation out of risk hitting multiple assets in the same window
BTC positioned at the tail end of the risk curve — meaning it absorbed the shock when the market got defensive
Matt also pointed to the ETF tape as a pressure valve: IBIT printed its biggest volume day ever (by a wide margin), and the flow skew leaned heavily toward sell pressure.
Bitcoin: the break was clean — so treat bounces like bounces
Den’s first read was straightforward: this wasn’t a gentle breakdown. It was a support liquidation.
What stood out:
Three-day candle closes with minimal wicks
Support levels blown through with almost no reaction
Even major historical reference points (including the 2021 ATH zone) didn’t produce meaningful slowing
Den’s playbook from prior bears
Den compared the current structure to typical bear sequencing:
Leg down
Consolidation
Break down again
Repeat until the market transitions into a long, dead, low-volume floor
Her key point: we don’t have the “dead zone” yet. And without that time-based bleed, calling “the bottom” is usually premature.
So… are we going lower?
Den’s “gun-to-head” view:
Near-term: a bounce is plausible (especially after such a fast drop)
Medium-term: likely chop/consolidation
Then: another leg lower is on the table unless macro meaningfully improves
If you bought the low, Den’s advice was blunt: be conservative with targets. In counter-trend environments, the market can give you a sharp rebound — and then erase it just as fast.
Weekly RSI: oversold can stay oversold
Matt addressed a common reflex traders had this week: “Weekly RSI is below 30 — it’s oversold, so we bounce.”
Yes, weekly RSI dipped into oversold territory — but he emphasized the historical nuance:
In June 2022, weekly RSI moved into oversold well before the true cycle lows.
Same idea in 2018: oversold was a condition, not a timing tool.
What matters more than the first oversold print is how RSI behaves afterward — whether it begins to build momentum/higher lows that align with broader basing structure.
Bottom line: RSI can help frame the regime, but it doesn’t front-run the bottom by itself.
“Real bottoms are quiet” (and we’re not there)
Matt added a non-technical signal he watches every cycle:
Early declines = panic, nonstop discussion, everyone glued to charts
True bottoming = silence
Participation dries up
No one cares
“Bitcoin is dead” becomes background noise
Then… a tiny green candle feels euphoric because anything happening feels exciting
Their shared view: the market has seen capitulation — but it hasn’t seen indifference yet.
Cycle levels & confluence: where traders are looking if the bleed continues
Den highlighted two recurring “map references” traders keep on the radar:
Prior-cycle retracement behavior into a key band (she referenced a historical “FIB area” zone many traders watch)
A longer-term weekly MA ribbon (200/300) that has acted as support historically — which, on her charting, clusters around the high $40Ks to $50Ks area
Important framing from Den: this is not a prophecy. It’s a confluence map — the kind of zone that becomes relevant if the market continues to unwind.
Ethereum: “it doesn’t look good” — but it’s still a range story
ETH was the bleaker segment of the episode.
Den’s read:
ETH didn’t follow the same “clean cycle behavior” this time
It’s been moving more like a range asset
No significant new highs were made this cycle
Multiple significant supports were sliced immediately
The only constructive angle Den offered was conditional:
If ETH continues to behave like a range, traders may be able to treat it like one — but right now it’s battling lower timeframe resistance, and conviction is thin.
Matt’s broader point was also key: it’s hard to justify sustained alt exposure when ETH looks like this, because ETH tends to be a major pillar for broader alt strength.
The outlier: HYPE’s isolated strength (but don’t ignore the overhead)
Despite the risk-off tape, one chart kept showing up: HYPE.
Matt admitted it’s been “mystifying” — and flagged the question many traders have:
How much of this is real demand vs. structural support (e.g., buybacks/mechanics)?
Why is it holding up while so much else is bleeding?
Den’s technical stance was cautious but clear:
HYPE has shown impressive strength off the lows
But it’s now pressing into heavy resistance
She wouldn’t get excited without a convincing break and reclaim above the key overhead level
If it fails there, Den’s concern is that the move may end up looking like a deviation before continuation lower.
How to think about trades here: process over prediction
A few risk-management principles kept coming up throughout the episode:
Respect broken structure. When levels slice cleanly, you don’t treat rebounds like a fresh bull trend.
If you’re trading a bounce, trade it like a bounce. Smaller targets. Faster decision-making.
Time matters. Big regime changes rarely resolve in a week.
Let the market prove it. Reclaims, EMA flips, and sustained holds matter more than hope.
What to watch (and listen to) next
First, listen to the full Trading Spaces here:
Then, looking forward, both Matt and Den framed the near-term as: bounce potential, but fragile structure.
So key watch items are:
Does BTC stabilize and consolidate, or does it try (and fail) to reclaim lost levels quickly?
Does ETH regain any meaningful structure, or does it keep behaving like “dead money” in a broken range?
Can HYPE break and hold above resistance — or does it roll over and lose its isolated-strength status?
Stay close to @krakenfx, @ krakenpro, and @Dentoshi for the next session and clips from this one.
Trade with Dentoshi on Kraken Pro
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