What just happened (and why it matters)
Den and Matt opened with the obvious: a historic leverage flush that rivaled anything we’ve seen for speed and scale. Leverage plus outsized open interest made the market fragile; one negative macro impulse was enough to cascade perps, trip liquidations and erase weeks of structure in one hour candles.
Since then, attempts to reclaim “lost” ranges have mostly failed at resistance. Think: pushes toward ~115K on BTC followed by rejections and closes beneath key daily EMAs. It’s classic post-shock behavior: bidders are cautious, liquidity is thinner, and every headline swings risk.
“ We’re right below resistance, but also right above the last-chance supports. It’s chop city — until it’s not.” — Den
Macro: the overhangs that can amplify every move
Tariff headlines: Conflicting signaling around China–U.S. trade keeps volatility elevated. Den’s rule: avoid trading the noise; anchor to dated catalysts and price levels instead.
Private credit & regional banks: A run of lender stress stories risks morphing from “one-offs” into systemic-feeling headlines. If that narrative builds, expect risk-off reflexes across equities and crypto.
Data & policy: CPI at month-end and an upcoming rate decision can shift the tone, even if cuts are expected.
Earnings: Not crypto-specific, but equity reactions matter while crypto trades like high-beta tech.
Bottom line: uncertainty is the theme — and markets hate it. Expect wide ranges and headline whips until a few of these dominoes fall into place.
BTC: the “last stand” zone
Den’s map is stark:
Support that must hold: around ~$98K — “last resort for bulls this cycle.”
Why it’s tricky: Price is squeezed between that support and nearby resistance after failing multiple EMAs/reclaims.
What strength would actually look like: on the 4h/1D, EMAs reclaimed and curling up, reclaim + hold of recently lost shelves, and higher lows that don’t get stuffed the next day.
Until then, assume time-based repair. Past analogs suggest these zones often need weeks of grinding before trend returns — if support holds.
ETH and the majors: follow the leader
ETH tried to reclaim the quarterly open / range highs — and got faded. The read is simple: majors have to print strength signals first, or nothing else sticks.
Breadth, TOTAL3 & BTC.D: why alts look heavy
TOTAL3 / “Others”: sitting near yearly opens/mid-range supports after rejecting mid-range breakouts. These are “could bottom here, but needs time” locations.
BTC Dominance (BTC.D): still grinding up — historically a headwind for alts until majors stabilize.
Translation: this isn’t the tape to force broad alt exposure. Let breadth prove itself first.
Den’s process: two valid entry archetypes
Den was blunt: after an outlier event, “not knowing” is a position.
Deep sweep punt: A fast, obvious wick into pre-mapped weekly demand (e.g., a dramatic stab under ~98K that instantly reclaims). Tight invalidation, small size, accept it’s a “last resort” style bet.
Strength/confirmation: Wait for level reclaims + EMA flips on the 4h/1D and build into continuation. There’s ample upside if a real trend resets; you don’t need the exact bottom.
Across both: position sizing and invalidation first. No martingales into resistance.
How bottoms tend to form (Den’s checklist)
Reclaim lost levels and hold (no immediate fail/reject).
EMAs flip on mid-timeframes after time-based digestion.
Failed breakdowns become new demand on retests.
Breadth improves: TOTAL3/“Others” break and hold above supply; BTC.D cools.
Macro stops getting worse (neutral > “good” at first).
If you’re not seeing these, it’s probably still a base-building phase — not a new uptrend.
Playbook (next 1–2 weeks)
Respect ~$98K on BTC as the key line.
Trade majors first. Let BTC and ETH show strength; only expand to alts if breadth breaks out and holds.
Two entries only:
Breakout-strength: fresh level breaks that hold with EMAs aligned.
Retest-logic: violent flush into pre-mapped demand with immediate reclaim.
Risk rules: define invalidation in advance and size so a stop equals a known % of portfolio risk.
Avoid chop traps: if price is wedged between nearby resistance and “last stand” support, do less.
Watch the replay & follow along
Catch the full replay on YouTube:
Follow @krakenfx, @krakenpro and @Dentoshi for stream times, charts and highlights. Our Trading Spaces recap series keeps the format consistent so you can skim the TL;DR, then dive into levels and process when markets get messy.
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