Last week, Chloe (@ ChloeTalk1) from HTX Research accurately predicted that a liquidity window could emerge in early May, driving capital back into crypto markets. On May 8, Bitcoin surged past $100,000 for the first time in three months—confirming her forecast. How long can this momentum last, and what are the implications of the latest U.S.-UK tariff deal? In this bonus update, Chloe provides fresh analysis of the evolving landscape.
New Hampshire and Texas Signal Strategic Shift Toward Bitcoin as a Sovereign Reserve Asset
On May 7, New Hampshire officially became the first U.S. state to pass a strategic Bitcoin reserve bill, authorizing its state treasury to purchase BTC through spot ETFs or public markets. Meanwhile, Texas’ SB 21 bill has completed all committee reviews and is expected to move to a final vote within the next three weeks. This development marks Bitcoin’s formal inclusion in the category of “sovereign-class assets,” positioning it as a partial alternative to U.S. Treasuries and gold. More importantly, the state-led Bitcoin procurement model could be replicated by 10 to 15 Republican-controlled states, providing consistent, long-term buy-side support to both spot ETFs and the broader on-chain market. This sends a powerful signal to investors: even if the federal government remains cautious, a structural shift toward Bitcoin reserve adoption is already underway at the state level.
UK–U.S. Tariff Agreement Signals Reduced Risk and Policy Support
On May 8, the United Kingdom and the United States reached a breakthrough trade agreement. The UK agreed to open its agricultural market to U.S. products in exchange for a reduction in U.S. tariffs on British automobile exports. Tariffs on British steel and aluminum exports to the U.S. were reduced to zero, while a 10% “reciprocal tariff” remains in place on U.S. imports. Although the UK already runs a trade deficit with the U.S. and the economic impact of the deal may be modest, it signals a willingness by the U.S. government to re-engage diplomatically and release policy tailwinds. U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick further indicated that the next major trade agreement could involve a large Asian economy, suggesting that the Trump administration is preparing to offer structural trade incentives on a broader geopolitical scale.
Bitcoin’s Market Structure Shifts From Speculative Trading to Institutional Capital Allocation
As policy conditions ease, Bitcoin’s capital flow dynamics have also undergone a fundamental shift. Over the past three weeks, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded a staggering $5.3 billion in net inflows—the highest quarterly inflow since their launch. Notably, this surge has not been driven by retail traders but by institutional actors, including the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund, the Swiss National Bank (via MicroStrategy equity purchases), and increased allocations by BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF. This signals a structural transition in Bitcoin’s pricing logic—from short-term volatility-driven speculation to long-term capital allocation. BTC is no longer merely a high-risk asset; it is gradually forming an independent capital ecosystem, increasingly viewed by institutional investors as a “supra-sovereign asset”—somewhere between gold and U.S. Treasuries.
Bitcoin Volatility Remains Contained; Market Awaits Macroeconomic Catalysts
Despite BTC’s recent rally to $100,000, the market has yet to exhibit signs of speculative frenzy. Implied volatility (IV) in Bitcoin options remains stable in the 50%–55% range, far below the extreme levels of 80%+ typically seen at the peak of past bull markets. CME Bitcoin futures open interest currently stands at $14.8 billion, well below the $20 billion peak observed during the 2020 Trump election period, indicating that leverage is still manageable. Meanwhile, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has repeatedly failed to break above 4.60%, now hovering around 4.40%, which remains a neutral-to-supportive zone for risk assets. Overall, as long as yields do not climb back above 4.8% and ETF inflows remain steady, Bitcoin is likely to consolidate in the $105,000–$115,000 range while awaiting the next breakout trigger.
Hidden Risk: Breakdown in China–U.S. and EU–U.S. Trade Talks Could Reignite Tariff Battles
Nevertheless, investors should remain vigilant about geopolitical risk. While U.S. negotiations with China and the EU are ongoing, there are significant unresolved tensions—particularly over tariffs, export controls, and industrial subsidies. President Trump has explicitly stated he has no intention of lowering the current 145% tariff on Chinese goods as a prerequisite for restarting trade negotiations. Meanwhile, EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič warned that if discussions with the U.S. fail, the EU is prepared to launch retaliatory tariffs, potentially targeting up to €100 billion worth of American goods. A breakdown in these negotiations could lead to the re-imposition of aggressive tariffs, reigniting global trade friction. This would likely dampen investor sentiment and place renewed pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin. As such, the hidden risk of renewed tariff wars remains a key macro variable that should be incorporated into all forward-looking risk assessments.
*The above content is not an investment advice and does not constitute any offer or solicitation to offer or recommendation of any investment product.
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