Structural Shift Under Macro Support: Bitcoin Holds Firm as Altseason Builds Momentum
As of May 21, 2025, the Federal Reserve’s net liquidity has rebounded to 6,022.869, recovering strongly from its early-May low. Although it has not yet reached the key range of 6,100–6,200, this trend signals an initial return of liquidity, providing macro-level support for the crypto market.
Despite last week’s long-bond auctions disappointing on both sides of the Pacific—with the U.S. 20-year yield pushed above 5 %, and Japan’s long-end rates setting 25-year highs—stoking global liquidity-squeeze fears, the impact is somewhat mitigated. The U.S. Treasury is primarily absorbing cash mainly via 3- to 6-month T-Bills, which tends to drain money-market funds rather than risk assets. Furthermore, the Fed retains the ability to pause quantitative tightening (QT) or open its repo facilities at will, capping potential spillover effects.
Bitcoin has held firm. Spot ETFs continue to post modest daily inflows, over 70 % of Bitcoin supply has remained dormant for six months or more, exchange balances are falling, and Asian/Middle-East buyers continue to buy dips. Even if net Treasury issuance jumps to roughly $1.25 trillion in Q3, short-dated supply and repo backstops dilute the drag on high-beta assets, while ETF passive holdings and “hard hands” diffuse selling pressure; a weaker-dollar narrative adds further support.
On-chain data shows that public chains like Solana and Base are seeing sustained increases in activity, with capital gradually shifting from BTC-dominated safe-haven assets to high-beta altcoins. BTC Dominance remains elevated and has not yet experienced a significant pullback, but if it drops below 52% in the coming sessions, coupled with further liquidity expansion, a new altcoin season could kick off.
Analysis on Trending Sectors
Wall Street Doubles Down on Crypto Credit: Maple Becomes the Institutional Capital Gateway
Cantor Fitzgerald has launched a Bitcoin-collateralized credit program with a total size of $2 billion. signaling Wall Street’s formal and large-scale entry into the crypto credit market. Initial recipients of this facility include crypto broker FalconX and the decentralized lending protocol Maple Finance. FalconX has already drawn over $100 million under this framework, and Maple Finance has completed its first loan issuance through the program.
The $SYRUP token, associated with Maple Finance, is available on HTX through spot trading, perpetual futures, and earn products. Since its spot listing, $SYRUP has surged by 110%, with strong performance also seen in derivatives—underscoring growing market recognition and investor confidence in the project. Maple’s newly launched syrupUSDC/USDT perpetual institutional credit pool offers 8–12% annual yields with high collateral transparency, rapidly attracting large volumes of idle institutional stablecoins. This month, the TVL surged from $800 million to $1.3 billion—markets are “voting with their feet,” fully validating the appeal and growth potential of the SYRUP model.
InfoFi Rising Star: $COOKIE Poised to Trigger the Next Revaluation Cycle
Based on current on-chain trends and macro liquidity data, $COOKIE is expected to be on the verge of explosive growth within the InfoFi sector. Compared to similarly positioned projects like Kaito, CookieDotFun’s current market cap is just one-fifth. Once the Cookie leaderboard, ad slot bidding, and other InfoFi monetization mechanisms go live, $COOKIE’ valuation ceiling could be lifted.
HTX has launched COOKIE/USDT perpetual futures, while KAITO—previously featured in the HTX DeepThink column—has also been listed on HTX, with a remarkable 138% gain over the past 30 days.
*The above content is not an investment advice and does not constitute any offer or solicitation to offer or recommendation of any investment product.
About HTX DeepThink
HTX DeepThink is a flagship market insights column created by HTX, dedicated to exploring global macro trends, key economic indicators, and major developments across the crypto industry. In a world where volatility is the norm, HTX DeepThink aims to help readers “ Find Order in Chaos.”
About HTX Research
HTX Research is the dedicated research arm of HTX Group, responsible for conducting in-depth analyses, producing comprehensive reports, and delivering expert evaluations across a broad spectrum of topics, including cryptocurrency, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends.
Connect with HTX Research Team: [email protected]
The post first appeared on HTX Square.
