Bitcoin Outlook in the Macro Environment: Liquidity & Market Risk Appetite
The current global macro environment is complex. A combination of factors, including cooling expectations for Fed rate cuts, ongoing quantitative tightening (QT), the replenishment of the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA), and anticipated rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, are collectively contributing to tighter short-term liquidity.
Over the medium term (3–12 months), liquidity is expected to gradually improve. However, uncertainty surrounding market risk appetite presents both opportunities and challenges for the Bitcoin market.
Policy Tug-of-War Signals Crypto-Friendly Shifts: A Loosening Grip on Stablecoin Regulation?
The ongoing policy debate is having a significant impact on the crypto market. In a notable development, Hong Kong’s Legislative Council has passed the Stablecoin Bill, which establishes a comprehensive licensing regime for fiat-backed stablecoin issuers in Hong Kong. This legislation further refines the regulatory framework for virtual asset activities within the region, aiming to foster financial stability and consumer protection.
The more profound and complex policy impacts are unfolding in the United States. The Trump administration’s “Big Beautiful Tax Plan”, aimed at reducing taxes by $5 trillion over the next decade, has boosted market sentiment in the short term. However, the growing fiscal deficit and debt ceiling issues could spark liquidity volatility.
Regarding regulation, the U.S. Senate is making progress on stablecoin legislation. The GENIUS Act seeks to establish a standardized framework for the stablecoin market, mandating backing by 100% high-quality asset reserves. Negotiations have reportedly reached a consensus on approximately 90% of the terms, signaling a strong bipartisan push for regulatory clarity in this critical sector.
Additionally, the accelerated exploration of tokenized U.S. equities is noteworthy, with the U.S. SEC is actively researching and evaluating this space, while major financial institutions (e.g., JPMorgan) are strategically positioning themselves in this emerging field.
Furthermore, U.S. federal and state initiatives to legislate “strategic Bitcoin reserves,” such as New Hampshire’s H.B. 302 bill, are further elevating Bitcoin’s strategic importance and providing policy support for increased institutional participation.These developments collectively indicate a growing recognition and integration of digital assets within traditional financial and governmental structures.
HTX Lists USD1 and Other Compliant Stablecoins, Introduces Zero-Fee Conversion
With global policy easing on the horizon and a growing push for regulatory clarity, stablecoins are increasingly solidifying their role as the foundation of liquidity and value pegs within the crypto market. Recognizing this pivotal opportunity, HTX has recently launched a range of compliant stablecoins, including USD1 (World Liberty Financial USD), USDQ (Quantoz), EURQ (Quantoz), USDR (StablR), EURR (StablR),and AETHUSDT (Aave Ethereum USDT). This expansion is designed to meet diverse user investment preferences and boost capital efficiency.
To celebrate the launch of USD1 and reduce barriers to user participation, HTX is offering a special zero-fee conversion service. From now until December 31, 2025, at 15:59 (UTC), users can trade the USD1/USDT spot pair with no trading fees. This initiative ensures users incur no additional costs during conversion, thereby maximizing their capital utilization.
The report concludes that the Bitcoin market may encounter liquidity pressures and volatility risks in the short term. However, the medium to long term holds significant potential for a rebound. This optimistic outlook is largely supported by clearer regulatory policies and growing institutional adoption. . HTX will continue to closely monitor market and regulatory trends to help users seize opportunities and achieve steady growth in the complex and evolving crypto landscape.
For the full report, please visit: https://square.htx.com/htx-research
The post first appeared on HTX Square.
