Here Are 3 US Economic Data to Shape Bitcoin Sentiment This Week

Bitcoin hovers near the critical $90,000 level as traders await pivotal US economic data releases this week that could significantly influence Federal Reserve policy expectations and cryptocurrency market sentiment.

Three major economic indicators between December 15-19, 2025 are positioning Bitcoin at a crucial inflection point, with markets closely monitoring Nonfarm Payrolls, Initial Jobless Claims, and Consumer Price Index data for directional cues. The cryptocurrency faces additional pressure from the Bank of Japan's anticipated rate hike on December 19, with markets pricing a 98% probability of an increase to 75 basis points.

Bitcoin's price consolidation near the $90,000 psychological threshold reflects heightened market uncertainty as traders balance between fears of a significant correction and hopes that Federal Reserve policy adjustments might provide support. The confluence of these macroeconomic events creates a potentially volatile environment for cryptocurrency markets this week.

Nonfarm Payrolls: Tuesday's Critical Labor Market Test

The November Nonfarm Payrolls report, scheduled for release on Tuesday, December 16 at 8:30 AM ET, represents the first comprehensive assessment of US labor conditions since September. Consensus forecasts indicate a dramatic slowdown in job creation, with expectations of just 50,000 jobs added compared to October's 119,000, while unemployment is projected to rise to 4.5% from 4.4%.

Recent private payroll data has already shifted sentiment toward weaker outcomes, with ADP's latest report showing a surprising contraction of 32,000 jobs. This unexpected weakness reinforces expectations that labor market momentum is cooling faster than anticipated, potentially influencing Federal Reserve policy decisions.

A stronger-than-expected employment report could revive hawkish Federal Reserve expectations, potentially pressuring Bitcoin toward the $85,000 support zone. Conversely, a weak report below the 40,000 to 50,000 range would likely strengthen dovish narratives, opening opportunities for a rebound toward $95,000 or higher as liquidity expectations improve.

Weekly Jobless Claims and CPI: Thursday's Double Impact

Thursday, December 18 presents a critical day for markets with two significant releases. Initial Jobless Claims data at 8:30 AM ET will offer immediate insights into labor market stress, with expectations of 223,000 claims for the week ending December 13, down from the previous week's 236,000.

The recent spike in jobless claims was interpreted as evidence of emerging labor market weakness, boosting rate-cut expectations and providing temporary support for Bitcoin despite a brief dip below $90,000. A print above 230,000 would likely reinforce dovish sentiment and support Bitcoin's upside potential, while a reading below 220,000 could temper rate-cut expectations and trigger pullbacks toward the $88,000 area.

The delayed November Consumer Price Index release, also scheduled for Thursday at 8:30 AM ET, represents arguably the most consequential data point of the week. Headline inflation is expected to rise slightly to 3.1% year-over-year from 3.0%, while core CPI is projected to remain steady at 3.0%.

Market sentiment appears polarized but leans bullish regarding CPI outcomes. A print below 2.8% could ignite risk-on momentum, pushing Bitcoin toward $95,000, while a reading above 3.2% risks hawkish repricing and potential drops toward $85,000. The inflation data's release coinciding with global central bank developments, including the potential Bank of Japan rate hike, positions CPI as the ultimate liquidity litmus test for cryptocurrency markets.

Looking Ahead: This week's economic data releases will likely determine whether Bitcoin breaks higher from its current consolidation or extends its range-bound trading near $90,000. The combination of labor market indicators and inflation data provides crucial inputs for Federal Reserve policy expectations, with cryptocurrency markets remaining highly sensitive to macroeconomic signals and liquidity conditions.