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The Retest, and the Seller That Never Left
The Retest, and the Seller That Never Left

Key Levels at a Glance LevelValueReadCycle low$58,000 (25 June)Retested 30 June, held by $56Weekly Open$59,590 (29 June)Spot trades below it$60,000 shelfReclaimed, rejectedSupport flipped to resistanceGamma flip~$68,000Negative-gamma regime belowAggregate realised price~$53,000Capitulation line, ~8% below spotMonthly Open$71,314 (1 June)June closed ~18% lower What Moved the Tape: A Seller the Macro Cannot Explain

The clearest signal this week is what did not drive the move. Treasury yields fell, not rose: the 2-year eased from 4.24 to 4.1 percent and the 10-year from 4.51 to 4.38 percent between 22 and 29 June. Equities printed record highs, with the S&P 500 closing the quarter at 7,449, up 9.55 percent for the year and posting the best second quarter for US indices since 2020. The dollar stayed firm, the DXY near 101.2 after touching a 14-month high of 101.8 on 24 June, while gold slipped to $3,974 currently, down roughly 10 percent for June.

Jul 1, 20267 min read