As always, nothing in this recap is financial advice — just market commentary and education.
TL;DR
In this episode of Trading Spaces:
QT is officially over as of December 1 and a 25 bps cut on December 10 is heavily priced in — but the market isn’t pricing a clean follow-up cut in January.
BTC just printed a rejection at a major confluence level (yearly open, monthly open, daily trend). Best case: chop. Worst case: a deeper markdown.
ETH looks “less bad” than BTC on lower timeframes and ETH/BTC is trying to grind higher — but Den still wants to see real follow-through before trusting any rotation.
Recent outperformers like ZEC and HYPE are flashing fatigue, while extreme laggards like XPL still can’t catch a bid — a sign this market is not ready to trend hard yet.
Heading into December 10 (Fed) and December 16 (jobs data), Den is firmly in “defense first” mode: let the macro play out and make the market prove it’s ready before sizing up risk.
Macro: the end of QT, a near-inevitable cut… and a big gap in January
Matt opened with the macro, because that’s what’s been steering BTC all quarter.
Rate cut odds are driving everything
BTC has been trading in lockstep with the probability of a rate cut, especially for the December and January meetings.
Fed futures are currently implying ~87–88% odds of a 25 bps cut at the December meeting.
What’s different this time:
The market is basically treating it as “either December or January”, not both.
The probability of seeing back-to-back cuts in December and January is still under 10% — a number Matt thinks is likely underpriced if the data stays friendly.
That asymmetry matters:
If the Fed cuts in December and data into January stays soft, there’s room for the market to reprice more cuts next year, which could be supportive for risk.
If they don’t cut next week, that’s where Matt sees the biggest downside risk: the bearish surprise is much larger than the bullish surprise.
PCE, data lag and why Powell will likely stay neutral
Because of the earlier government shutdown, the latest PCE inflation data that just dropped is still September data — already somewhat stale by the time of this meeting.
Key takeaways from Matt:
Core PCE (the Fed’s preferred measure) is running at 2.8% YoY, down from 2.9%.
Consumer spending has slowed as expected.
The print was “in line to slightly better than expected”, which is good mainly because there were no nasty surprises.
That’s why Matt doesn’t think this PCE release meaningfully shifts the December 10 outcome.
More importantly, look at what comes after the meeting:
Dec 16: jobs data (non-farm payrolls)
Then a full run of CPI, PPI and PCE before the January decision
There’s a ton of fresh data arriving after Powell speaks next week, which is why Matt expects the Fed’s messaging to remain very neutral – low incentive to commit to an aggressive easing path before that information lands.
QT ends, potential new Fed chair chatter and Vanguard’s ETF move
A few more macro levers Matt flagged:
QT officially ended on December 1
That doesn’t mean “full send money printing.”
But it does mean we’ve shifted from liquidity-negative to at least mildly liquidity-positive, which historically supports risk assets (crypto included).
Kevin Hassett being floated as a possible next Fed chair under Trump:
Seen as dovish and pro-cut, and notably more crypto-friendly.
Good optics for risk sentiment, even if the bond market isn’t thrilled.
Vanguard opening up access to crypto ETFs (BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP and others):
Matt framed this as “more symbolic than seismic” in the short term.
Structural access improves, but it’s unlikely to be a near-term flows bomb.
Taken together, the backdrop is quietly supportive but still fragile. There’s more upside in how 2026’s cuts get repriced than in the December decision itself — and that’s where Matt is steering his focus.
BTC: first real rejection at a key confluence — “chop is best case, down is worst case”
Den then zoomed into the charts, starting with BTC.
The first “real” level gets tagged… and rejected
On the BTC chart, we’ve just seen price tag and reject a confluence zone:
Yearly open
A key daily trend / EMA cluster
On the 4H, attempts to reclaim EMAs failed for now
Den had been watching for a “bullish shift” pattern she’s seen many times:
Reclaim -> consolidate (“sandwich”) -> expand higher.
Instead, BTC tried to reclaim, immediately rejected, and slid back below those levels.
Her read:
This was the first real resistance on the way up from Monday’s bounce — and BTC failed there on the first attempt.
That strongly suggests “chop is the best case, down is the worst case” unless and until we see a fresh, convincing reclaim.
Daily EMAs flip bearish for the first time since 2022
On higher timeframes, BTC’s daily EMAs have now crossed bearish — something we haven’t seen since 2022.
Den is not treating that as a standalone trading signal, but as a structural tell:
Throughout the prior uptrend, BTC had dipped below EMAs but never flipped the stack fully bearish.
Now that we’ve lost that configuration, she’s on high alert for a “fake reclaim then die” structure similar to what we saw around the 2021 cycle highs, where:
Price deviated above a key range
Failed to reclaim with strength
Then rolled over into a much deeper downtrend
A repeat of that pattern would look something like:
We (eventually) print a “hopeful” rally back toward the January all-time high area
Rejects or deviates above that level
Then starts a much more serious markdown
She’s not saying this will happen — but this is a scenario she’ll be actively watching.
Sentiment, 10/10 and the “mountain to climb”
Matt added a sentiment overlay:
Since the October 10 washout, buyer exhaustion has been obvious.
Even from where we started the day (~91.5k), a move back to 104k now feels like a huge climb, with major levels stacked all the way up:
94k needs to be reclaimed and held
Then a chunky band of resistance between 98k–100k
It’s not that new highs are impossible — but the path likely isn’t a “straight line, all at once” move.
Between restrictive (but easing) rates and the usual 2–3 month lag between policy changes and liquidity effects, both Matt and Den expect any bottoming structure to take some time to build.
Until then, Den’s stance is simple:
“Play defense, have your checklist, and don’t get excited until price actually does what you said you wanted to see.”
ETH: “slightly prettier” than BTC, but still needs to prove it
If BTC is the problem child right now, ETH is at least behaving slightly better.
On the USD chart:
ETH hasn’t yet tagged — or rejected from — its yearly open, which gives it a bit more room structurally.
It’s still trading above monthly open and key short-term support.
Crucially, ETH has not yet lost its EMAs in the same way BTC has, which is why Den called it “less bad” on the lower timeframes.
On ETH/BTC:
The pair has been trying to base and grind higher since late August.
There was a “cute” little breakout attempt recently, helped along by narrative flows (Tom Lee’s calls, ETF speculation, etc.).
But Den pointed out this “attempt to move” has been going on for months without decisive follow-through.
Her bottom line on ETH:
Structure is cleaner than BTC.
ETH/BTC is trying to rotate.
But given how long this has dragged, she wants to see something as convincing as the prior strong impulse before treating it as a real, sustained rotation.
Oxygen tests and altcoins: what ZEC, HYPE and friends are telling us
One theme that came up repeatedly: “the market needs oxygen to move up.”
When macro gives it oxygen (rate-cut odds rising, equities ripping), we see attempts at strength.
The moment that oxygen is taken away, those attempts stall or fully unwind.
Den uses a basket of names as “oxygen tests” — if they can’t follow through in good conditions, the market isn’t ready yet.
ZEC: the privacy outperformer showing real fatigue
ZEC has been one of the standout privacy coin outperformers since the October volatility spike:
For weeks, it ignored BTC’s swings and even rallied into some of BTC’s big red candles.
It rode a beautiful, clean daily uptrend, with price hugging and respecting the trend the entire way.
Now, though, the cracks are obvious:
That daily trend has finally broken.
Breakout attempts at the highs have turned into wicky failed expansions.
The first break of structure saw a violent move from the 500s down into the 300s.
Den’s read:
ZEC looks “tired”
A reclaim of that lost daily trend and a strong push back above the 2021 all-time high area would be needed to revive the bull case.
On the downside, she’s eyeing the 1D 200 EMA zone as a potential “interesting” level if structure and lower-timeframe price action align there.
Matt added that ZEC is exactly the kind of narrative-heavy, momentum-driven asset that can:
Rip back above 500
Or nuke through 250
…with almost equal probability in the very short term. For him, the key is how it behaves into Q1 2026 if broader crypto catches a bid — he still expects prior cycle darlings to feature in any renewed momentum phase.
HYPE: one of the best “market tells” is unable to show strength at important levels
HYPE has been one of Den’s favorite market barometers this cycle:
Structurally, it’s often moved cleaner and further than most alts.
After the October 10 chaos, it rallied all the way back to range highs, outperforming many peers that barely bounced to logical levels.
That’s why its current structure is so important:
Price is now rejecting from the previous all-time high region.
There’s a dense cluster of resistance:
Daily EMAs
A key diagonal
Prior lows now acting as resistance
The chart, in Den’s words, looks “very toppy” from a long perspective.
If one of the strongest horses in the race is cleanly rejecting, that tells her:
“We’re far from ready. If HYPE can’t push through here as the previous strongest horse, the other, weaker altcoins probably can’t either.”
XPL: the “anti-hype” index and why it still matters
On the opposite end of the spectrum from things like HYPE sits XPL — a coin Den jokingly dubbed the “anti-hype” index.
Why bother watching a chart that looks this bad? Because:
When even the weakest horses start to show strength, it often signals a broad risk-on phase.
The fact that XPL still can’t reclaim even its 4H 100 EMA, and continues to drip lower, underlines how far we are from that kind of environment.
Den had briefly hoped XPL might break above that 4H 100 EMA during the recent bounce — but renewed selling quickly crushed that attempt.
If charts like XPL begin to base, reclaim key moving averages and put in higher lows, she’d take that as a strong secondary sign that the market is ready for a more durable uptrend.
We’re nowhere near that yet.
Strategy into December 10 and 16: defense, not hero trades
With only days until the December 10 Fed decision and another crucial data point on December 16 (non-farm payrolls), both Matt and Den are focused less on calling the exact bottom and more on being alive and flexible when the real move comes.
Den’s framework going into the next two weeks:
On BTC:
She is not blindly bidding the recent lows.
The “auto-bid” levels for BTC are lower down for her.
On the upside, she wants to see:
A proper reclaim and hold of the yearly/monthly open confluence
4H 200 EMA reclaimed with conviction
Then structure that looks like a true trend shift, not just a reactive bounce.
On ETH:
Watch whether ETH can hold above its key support cluster and avoid the same EMA breakdown BTC has suffered.
If ETH/BTC can finally push out of its months-long “trying” phase, that’s where she’ll start to get more constructive.
On alts:
Let ZEC, HYPE, FARTCOIN-type names be your tells.
If they start to show sustained strength on good macro days and hold structure when macro wobbles, that’s when rotation risk starts to look more attractive.
Matt’s closing macro notes:
Don’t over-index on the event day candles.
Recent cuts have been 100% priced in by the time the announcement hits, with the bigger moves coming in the weeks before and after as probabilities adjust.
The bigger optionality now lies in how the market reprices cuts for 2026, especially if January’s meeting starts to look like another live cut.
Housekeeping & how to watch the replay
Thanks to everyone who joined live; catch the replay here:
Trading Spaces runs every two weeks, hosted by Matt Howells-Barby with pro trader Dentoshi (Den).
We’ll be back on December 19, just after the Fed decision and key data releases — expect a very different set of charts by then.
In the meantime:
Follow @krakenfx, @krakenpro and @Dentoshi on X for stream times, live charts and clips.
Trade the levels with Kraken Pro
Want to put Den’s framework into practice?
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Set price and volume alerts around the key levels discussed in this session.
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